Russia carried out the most massive air attack against Ukraine since the beginning of the war with cruise missiles and drones. Previously, American sources reported that Moscow was preparing a response to the Ukrainian secret operation "Cobweb". Who loses more… Col. (retd) Willis Tsurov, chairman of the Board of the Union of Reserve Officers "Atlantic", spoke to FACT on the topic.
- Col. Tsurov, have we witnessed a modern "Pearl Harbor" in Russia, after Ukraine destroyed many Russian aircraft at the Belaya military base, deep in the East Siberia?
- Indeed, something surprising happened, as once during World War II, when Japanese aviation dealt a crushing blow to the US Pacific Fleet through a surprise attack developed over months. But there is also one significant difference. If this has ever happened during ongoing hostilities in many regions of the world and a military force strikes a military force that is to one degree or another in a state of some readiness for war and is comparable in military capabilities to the other, then in this case we can say that the two situations are similar only in the final result, but not in the way it was achieved.
Here in this case we have the implementation of an operation at a much higher effective and intellectual level for one side and an extremely primitive and ineffective defensive state on the other side.
We have witnessed how an internal structure for Ukraine managed to organize a successful operation thousands of kilometers inside Russia by using agents and combat technical means on nuclear facilities (it is assumed that their protection is more reliable than ordinary military facilities) and to destroy and neutralize them to a large extent, for which, on a global scale, far more expensive means of destruction and with a significantly lower probability of success are probably provided.
- How do you view the implementation of Operation “Spiderweb“, as the Ukrainians called it?
- The war in Ukraine has been going on for more than three years now, and in the near future, Russia's so-called “special operation“ will turn out to be longer than their so-called “Great Patriotic War“. We have long been observing how the theoretical material for waging wars has been exhausted and how the military strategists themselves who write it are amazed at the ingenuity of the servicemen of the Ukrainian army and how military academies are starting to lag behind in the training of their trainees.
The course of history has changed so that in the military sphere, practice has significantly outpaced theory, and it is no coincidence that after this operation, President Zelensky said that Operation “Spiderweb,” as it was called in Ukraine, would rewrite the military textbooks. And this is no coincidence, since for the first time it was shown how nuclear weapons carriers can be effectively defeated through good organization and insignificant combat resources. Not to mention that the scheme itself during wartime is unconventional, but significantly modified, and the operation does not involve military units, but only the Security Forces of Ukraine, which are essentially engaged in internal security for Ukraine. We have already witnessed how the Main Directorate of Military Intelligence of Ukraine largely liquidated the Russian Black Sea Fleet and forced it to withdraw to distant regions, a task inherent to the naval forces of Ukraine.
According to information from the media and after analyses from a military point of view, the operation “Spiderweb“‘ is executed perfectly, considering the depth of action and the coherence in time. In my opinion, it has nothing to do with the negotiations taking place in Turkey between Ukraine and Russia on June 2, 2025, since a strategic operation of this kind can hardly be stopped or rescheduled for another date, given the hidden time management and limited communication on Russian territory.
- Russia's strategic aviation was hit. What does this mean for the development of combat operations on the front?
- The strike on strategic aviation would hardly have a direct impact on the fighting on the front line, since there is an information blackout for the rank and file, but many of the high-ranking military leaders will receive some information through various channels that will to one degree or another increase their doubt about the invincibility of the Russian army, especially since their country's nuclear arsenal generated some reassurance in them when taking risks during the operation. For Russia, this is undoubtedly a major failure, since its strategic aviation is of an older generation and would hardly be subject to restoration - especially since it is currently being used to launch conventional missile strikes against Ukraine. According to information from Ukraine, the destroyed or damaged aircraft is about 34%, but even if only half of this information is true, the result is respectable, especially since against the background of the operation there were two train crashes in different regions (Kursk and Bryansk), for which the Ukrainian side did not confirm participation, probably because of the upcoming negotiations, but the mass information among the population could not be prevented. The term “Pearl Harper” appeared in Russian bloggers supporting the Kremlin and accusing their own supervisors of allowing this.
- What does Russia's strategic aviation include?
- Russia's strategic aviation includes aircraft such as the Tu-95, Tu-22 and Tu-160 of various modifications, as well as support aircraft for guidance and target designation of the A-50 type and transport aircraft for delivering special means (nuclear weapons (NUK)) to air bases. It has a regimental organization with two squadrons of 9-10 aircraft each. The units are composed of 3 aircraft each. All modifications of the aircraft are nuclear weapon carriers, with each aircraft having the ability to deliver up to 16 missiles. With simple calculations, we can conclude that with one regimental sortie, nuclear strikes will be delivered to 300-320 targets. Russia's strategic aviation is mainly intended to strike at NATO's operational and strategic depth, reaching the territory of the United States. Five air bases in the five regions - Murmansk, Irkutsk, Ivanovo, Ryazan and Amur - have apparently been hit, and according to information from the Russian Federation, two of them have had aircraft damaged. Ukraine considers 41 aircraft destroyed or damaged, Russia does not provide information, but satellite images from independent sources prove that at least 17 aircraft were completely destroyed, which is again a significant success in underestimating the combat capabilities of the Russian Aerospace Forces.
- Is the fact that the bases are located deep in Russian territory a weak point? Because apparently the bases were not protected? No one expected such an attack…
- To some extent, this has played a bad joke on security and underestimated the capabilities of Ukrainian citizens who are strongly motivated to take revenge, many of whom have lost their families and loved ones. In principle, the security and defense of an airbase is a very complex task, in many cases unfeasible with modern military technologies that use drones, jamming systems, lasers, sabotage, etc. Authoritarianism in Russia and in particular in the Federal Security Service leads to natural gaps generated by suspicions of subordinates, lack of initiative, disinterest in security issues, etc., which are naturally more pronounced in deep Russian territory. In this case, from the footage of the drones carrying out the strikes presented in the media, it is clear that the planes were taken to "parking" or in some kind of readiness, which, according to experts, puts them in conditions of greatest vulnerability. It is unlikely that for such a type of aircraft and at such a strategic depth there are special shelters provided for protection from bombs, missiles, drones, etc.
- Drones - is this the new weapon that has proven to be very reliable. One drone costs up to 1,000 euros, and it humiliates an aircraft for hundreds of millions…
- Yes, indeed, drones are proving to be an extremely effective weapon for combating any means of warfare, including against drones. Ukraine in this regard is far ahead in innovations, having already tested an unmanned missile aircraft at short, medium and long distances up to 1,600 km., an unmanned sea strike aircraft, an unmanned sea aircraft for shooting at aircraft, an airborne unmanned aircraft for shooting at aircraft, ground drones and a whole range of self-guided drones and drones with artificial intelligence of different classes. In general, the entire concept of conducting modern warfare has completely changed, given the risk to personnel and the effectiveness of defeats.
- The attack was carried out near the military bases. The drones are lifted from trucks that are very close and immediately hit the planes that are parked at the base. A powerful strike in the rear… How is such an operation organized?
- Whether this is so is debatable, since I am not convinced that the Ukrainians will give out the secrets they used or release information that would mislead the investigative authorities in Russia. However, it makes a lot of sense that something similar was carried out using agents deep in the rear or Russian-speaking citizens from Ukraine who have a strong motivation for various reasons to carry out such an activity. Getting the drones across the border and the front line should not be a problem, since they can be disassembled or transferred as dual-use goods. At the HEMUS 2024 exhibition, Ukrainian colleagues showed us in a demonstration how a drone can be assembled in minutes and loaded with up to 6 kg of explosives (quite enough to hit an armored personnel carrier) and, through autonomous or operator guidance, can be used to hit a target up to 12 kilometers away. And all the details can be found in the commercial network as ordinary goods. Apparently, the attack was organized by a larger group of people, and each was responsible for a specific direction and was coordinated in advance at a time and hour using extremely limited communication or without any such. In all cases, the participants involved in the operation had the necessary training and discipline to carry out their assigned tasks.
- It is said that 34% of Russian strategic aviation is out of order. According to Ukrainian data. This is not a small amount, right…
- As I emphasized, even if half of it is true, the result is not small at all, considering the period of time for which it was achieved. Here we can also mention the administrative effect of confusion in the Russian authoritarian system, which will manifest itself - inevitably, people will be sought from within - there will be accusations, dismissals, punishments, transfers, re-basing of aviation, indiscriminate missile strikes on Ukraine - in other words, an increase in the costs of waging the war by Russia, which is also in favor of Ukraine. It should be noted that, unlike Russia, which indiscriminately strikes civilians and civilian infrastructure on the territory of Ukraine, Ukrainian strikes are entirely focused on military targets and objects and objects of the energy and logistics infrastructure related to the war. This was even seen in Kursk.
- How will Russia respond? What do you expect?
- As for a response from Russia - there will undoubtedly be one, but given the authoritarian method of decision-making, it will not be very well thought out. It is likely that mass missile and drone strikes on civilian targets in Ukraine will intensify. Attempts will be made to change the nuclear doctrine of the Russian Federation for the purpose of intimidation, and attacks on the front line will increase (especially with more manpower, but less equipment). The strategic goals of the Russian army's spring-summer offensive are unlikely to be achieved, but at the cost of large casualties there may be some minimal progress.
- What are the options for countering a drone attack?
- This is a new tactic, I would say an operational art, which has not been studied or even predicted so far. Drones are considered expendable smart weapons of modern warfare. Micro drones with artificial intelligence are already being developed, which, based on their embedded image, can find the person in a crowd of people and destroy them with a micromunition (up to 3 years), sticking to their forehead. Experiments with similar models have already been carried out.
According to the latest information, the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine managed to penetrate the database of the concern "Tupolev" and download a large amount of information about the employees working there. Several successful operations were carried out to eliminate senior military leaders in the Russian army. The addresses of a number of servicemen in leading positions in the army of the Russian Federation, participating in the war in Ukraine and identified as targets for revenge, are also no secret. It would not be surprising if in the near future attacks are carried out against some of them. Drones or unmanned aerial vehicles can be used in all these operations and sabotage acts. Unfortunately, at the moment there are very few systems for effectively defeating drones. It relies mainly on direct visibility and high-speed firing of anti-aircraft artillery systems.
Bulgaria is one of the leading countries in the production of 5th generation anti-drone systems (distinguishing drones from birds) and suppressing autonomous systems within a radius of 12 km in a range of up to 24 GHz, but technologies are already chasing 30 GHz.
The main suppression systems operate at an effective radius of 6-8 km, but strong electromagnetic radiation is a typical target for enemy artillery. In tactical depth, drones controlled by fiber optic cables have proven to be extremely difficult to destroy, and high-speed reactive unmanned aerial vehicles controlled by artificial intelligence are practically captured only for statistics, but hitting them is extremely difficult and expensive. Of the air defense systems for combating drones, the object-oriented ones remain (IRIS-T - various modifications (SLM, SLX), etc.) and universal (Patriot - various modifications), but the cost-effectiveness ratio must be determined depending on the object to which the drone is directed and the likely damage it would cause, since the price of air defense missiles is extremely high compared to the price of the unmanned aerial vehicle. The general conclusion is - The drone is an extremely effective and smart weapon in modern warfare!