At the moment, all eyes are on Pokrovsk. How do you assess the current situation and what should we expect?
M. Reisner: In recent weeks, we have been observing a continuous deterioration of the situation around Pokrovsk. Russia is trying to direct its attack in the so-called central direction. Ukraine managed to repel an attempt to break through north of Pokrovsk, but the Russians have seriously increased their pressure and managed to penetrate into the southern regions of the city.
What can happen after the capture of Pokrovsk by Russian troops?
M. Reisner: We will see the same development of events that we have repeatedly observed earlier in the battles for other cities: Ugledar, Bakhmut or Avdeevka. We have seen the Russians take another town, but they have failed to achieve a real operational breakthrough. The breakthrough that the Russians so desperately wanted to achieve this summer was not achieved, and now, at the end of their failed summer offensive, we see its culmination - the capture of several towns and villages - most likely Pokrovsk in the coming days or weeks.
And what is happening around Kupyansk and Liman at the moment?
M. Reizner: There are six hotbeds of tension on the front: Kupyansk, Liman, Seversk, Novopavlovka, Pokrovsk and Konstantinovka. In my opinion, three of them should be watched carefully. First, this is Kupyansk, because the Russians managed to advance west of the town and the Ukrainian troops have already begun to evacuate. Second, Seversk, which is the most important stronghold in the central part of the front. Thirdly, the situation in Pokrovsk itself, as well as south of it - because there the Russian troops are trying to advance towards the Dnieper.
What is the situation on the front as a whole?
M. Reisner: Thanks to the use of drones, Ukraine is able to build a very well-planned defense and compensate for the shortage of resources and especially manpower. The problem is that Russia is trying to achieve an effect practically on the entire front, delivering simultaneous strikes. If they are not effectively repelled, sooner or later cities will be bombed one after another, which will lead to their fall.
Ukraine must either go on the offensive again or increase the pressure to such an extent that Russia will be forced to sit down at the negotiating table.
Ukraine is making such efforts and we are already seeing some first signs of success, but at the operational level there is still no concept that could really change the course of events. Because the Russians have held the initiative since last summer, although they are advancing at a slow pace. This progress must be stopped.
American intelligence believes that Vladimir Putin does not want to end the war and is currently acting even more decisively. Is that right?
M. Reisner: Russia remains convinced that it can achieve its goals at the operational level. It is noteworthy that the US is trying to increase pressure on Russia, including by supporting Ukraine in attacks on targets in Russia, primarily on important oil and gas processing facilities, in order to deprive the Russians of the resources necessary to wage this protracted war.
And now we see how the US, following the "boiling the frog" strategy, is heating up the situation again. In part, this is due to the large-scale tightening of sanctions, including against countries such as China and India, as well as support for Kiev, which allows it to carry out large-scale drone attacks deep into Russian territory.
Is this determination of Putin in any way connected with the tests of the "Burevestnik" missile, which the Russian military declared successful, and the deployment of "Oreshnik" missiles on the territory of Belarus?
M. Reisner: Yes, this can be seen in this context. There have already been three escalations in the war. The first was in the summer of 2022, when Russia was considering the possibility of using tactical nuclear weapons, but the United States managed to neutralize this. The second was at the end of the previous US administration, when Western weapons systems with a longer range were used on Russian territory. Russia responded with the use of the Oreshnik missile, as well as several hybrid attacks. And the third escalation, which we are experiencing now, I think began with the attack on a large military plant in Bryansk, where, apparently, Storm Shadow missiles were used. And then, as a consequence, we saw the test of the Russian Burevestnik cruise missile with a nuclear installation. In my opinion, this fits into the typical pattern of mutual threats.
Author: Olga Tikhomirova