On December 1, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that Pokrovsk had been captured. On December 2, the American Institute for the Study of War noted the lack of evidence of the complete Russian occupation of the city. According to the communications department of the Ukrainian army as of December 3, the defense forces of Ukraine continue to hold the northern part of Pokrovsk. Measures are also being taken to eliminate the hotbeds of Russian troops, to ensure logistics in the Pokrovsk and Mirnograd areas, as well as to block attempts by the Russian army to gather assault infantry groups and move past settlements, said the spokesman for the Ukrainian General Staff Dmitry Likhovoy.
The Russian flag in Pokrovsk – Russian propaganda show?
In confirmation that the city is occupied, Russian troops have released a video of the Russian tricolor waving over the center of Pokrovsk. However, according to military analyst Yan Matveev, this is a "show organized specifically for the American special envoy Witkoff", because if the city was really completely conquered, the proof should be a video from its northern districts, and not from the center, which has been "captured for a long time".
According to the Ukrainian analytical project DeepState, street fighting is currently ongoing in the city for its northern part. If earlier the Ukrainian units managed to push back the Russian groups in the city center, preventing them from penetrating to the north, then recently the Russian presence there has become more noticeable, point out the two co-founders of DeepState Ruslan Mikula and Roman Pogorely.
„If earlier there were two or three Russians there, now the groups are four or five, and the Ukrainians are starting to push them back only on the northern outskirts. This is evidence that in the center they have become so numerous that they are able to move north in groups“, explains Ruslan Mikula to DW. According to him, however, the Russians have not yet managed to completely push the Ukrainian forces out of the city – due to the shortage of infantry. But the analyst adds that this is a matter of time, given that the Russian units have numerical superiority.
The Russians have not yet managed to capture the northern part of Pokrovsk
Roman Pogorely, in turn, points out that, unlike the center, the Russian troops have not yet managed to strengthen themselves in the northern part of the city. At the same time, he doubts the effectiveness of the Ukrainian tactics of clearing, explaining that the Russian troops still have the opportunity to attract additional forces to the areas in question.
„The Ukrainians clear an area or street, but after a while the Russians enter there again, because the passages are not blocked. Therefore, this tactic is not a cardinal solution to the situation.“
Mirnograd – under the threat of a blockade
At the same time, both analysts point out that the fate of neighboring Mirnograd, which is about seven kilometers away, depends on the development of the situation in Pokrovsk. According to them, the situation there is the most threatening, although the presence of Russians in the city is smaller.
“If in Pokrovsk itself there is still some logistics and the units can move and leave, then in Mirnograd this is impossible, although there is no physical encirclement of the city“, says Ruslan Mikula. Currently, logistics are provided by heavy drones and ground robotic complexes. It is dangerous to go on foot, but it is still possible. “If Pokrovsk falls, they will control every movement. They will not even have to go out physically – the crews of drone pilots will be enough. In this situation, I don't know how the Ukrainian forces will be able to leave Mirnograd. And everything points that way," the analyst warns.
Russia's tactics in relation to Mirnograd are different, DeepState says. Unlike Pokrovsk, there are isolated street battles there, but the Russians are pressing from the south, east and north, simultaneously carrying out massive air attacks to push the Ukrainian military garrison out of the city. According to Mikula, the presence of Russian troops is fixed in the northern and southeastern outskirts of the city, as well as partially in the western ones.
Control over Pokrovsk and Mirnograd will facilitate the Russian offensive
According to Pogorely, the situation can be saved "only by a miracle", since much has already been "lost". He emphasizes that in these conditions the main thing is to save people. The analyst does not want to make predictions about what consequences the probable loss of Pokrovsk and Mirnograd could have for the rest of the Donetsk region.
Mikula believes that control of these cities will ease the Russian advance on the part of Donetsk region that remains under Ukrainian control. "They will concentrate their logistics entirely in these cities - they will become their strongholds. We don't know how many thousands of servicemen can hide in Pokrovsk and Mirnograd, but their number will definitely be very large", Mikula says.
Russia is far from conquering Donetsk region
A senior NATO official also believes that if occupied, Pokrovsk will be used by the Russians for logistics and as a springboard for attacks on other cities in Donetsk region. However, according to him, this will not mean the inevitable collapse of the Ukrainian defense, which is "unlikely in the near future".
Furthermore, according to him, the conquest of the rest of the Donetsk region is not a realistic possibility for the Russians, at least in the next one or two years. This opinion is also shared by analysts at the American Institute for the Study of War. They believe that the probable fall of Pokrovsk will not significantly accelerate the conquest of the entire region by Russia.
Author: Anastasia Shepeleva