Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to show that he will not be satisfied with a peaceful settlement of the conflict, which concerns only Ukraine and does not envisage a radical restructuring of NATO, writes the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), analyzing Putin's statements from January 15 in his speech to foreign diplomats, writes Focus.
Putin repeated his thesis that Russia's war against Ukraine is a "direct response" to the West's ignoring of Russia's interests through NATO expansion, which has occurred despite Russia's public promises not to expand the Alliance. The President also stated that for peace in Ukraine it is necessary to "return to discussing a new security architecture", which was previously proposed by Russia.
ISW recalls that as early as the end of 2021, Russia set NATO ultimatums, the implementation of which would require the destruction of the Alliance and a revision of the European security architecture (in particular, the requirement to return NATO to its 1997 borders). Putin has repeatedly demonstrated that his demands are greater than those set out in the 28-point plan proposed by the US and its subsequent variants, ISW emphasizes. Analysts are convinced that Putin remains true to his original military goals for 2021 and 2022, which go beyond territorial conquests and are not limited to Ukraine.
At the same time, the Kremlin continues to spread false claims that Ukraine’s defense is on the verge of failure. However, data on Russian achievements since the start of the full-scale invasion indicate the opposite, ISW recalls. On January 15, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the situation in Ukraine was worsening with each passing day and that "the corridor for decision-making [by Ukraine] is narrowing". Peskov meant that Kiev must give in to Russia’s demands now – before Ukraine cannot defend itself and is forced to capitulate in the future.
However, as ISW emphasizes, Ukrainian defense is not on the verge of collapse and Ukrainian forces have already managed to prevent the realization of Putin’s main goal – the subjugation of all of Ukraine by the Russian army and military power. Analysts recall that at the height of the Russian invasion in March 2022, Russian forces occupied 26.16% of the territory of Ukraine. The subsequent Ukrainian counteroffensive aimed at pushing Russian troops out of Kiev and northern Ukraine reduced this indicator to 20.21% by the end of April 2022. The volume of territories controlled by Russia continued to decrease – to 17.84% at the end of 2022 after Ukraine's counteroffensives in Kharkiv and Kherson.
The area of captured territories remained relatively unchanged in 2023, 2024 and 2025. Russian troops controlled from 17.9% to 18.52% of the territory of Ukraine in 2023 and 2024, and by the end of 2025 this indicator had increased to 19.32%. Thus, Russian troops have captured an additional 1.5% of the territory of Ukraine in the past three years, ISW calculated.
However, Russian achievements have been insignificant and limited by the speed of their advance on foot, as Russian troops have been forced to resort to exhausting infantry attacks and have not been able to restore mechanized maneuver warfare on the battlefield over the years. Russian battlefield gains are likely to continue to be slow and grueling, and are unlikely to lead to a rapid collapse of the front line in Ukraine, ISW analysts conclude.
The experts add that the Chief of the Russian General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, continues to tell “blatant lies” and exaggerates Russian achievements on the battlefield to spread the Kremlin's false narrative of Russia's supposedly inevitable military victory. In particular, on January 15, Gerasimov again claimed that Russian troops had captured Kupyansk, despite numerous visual evidence and reports to the contrary, ISW recalls.