The growth of the Russian economy this year could drop to almost zero, the Russian Union of Entrepreneurs said. Representatives of small and medium-sized businesses are particularly worried - the Internet is full of videos about liquidations and sales of companies.
The forecasts for small businesses are gloomy
Even analysts and organizations close to the government are already writing about a serious deterioration in business conditions. Surveys show that for the absolute majority of entrepreneurs, the forecasts for the first quarter of the year are gloomy. A third of small businesses are considering whether to close or sell their businesses, and retailers' expectations are "the worst for the entire observed period."
For the first time since 2000, the number of stores in Russia has decreased. "From January to March, not a single store of a new brand has appeared in the country. This has only happened once before - in the first quarter of 2022," economist Yevgeny Romanenko noted. The catering industry is also talking about a crisis: in the first quarter, attendance in some establishments fell by 40 percent. "The beginning of 2026 turned out to be the worst for the restaurant industry in the last 25 years," wrote the newspaper "Kommersant."
The global economic downturn was also publicly confirmed by President Vladimir Putin at a meeting in late March. But this does not mean that the top management is seriously concerned about the difficulties faced by medium-sized entrepreneurs, a Moscow economist, who requested anonymity, told DW. "Small and medium-sized businesses in Russia have never been a particularly significant factor." The analyst notes that the main thing for the Kremlin is the stability of the oligarchs and their companies. According to "Forbes", there are now about 150 dollar billionaires in Russia, and their number has increased in a year. "And small business must survive as it sees fit. This is its drama in this coordinate system. On the other hand, the Russian businessman has repeatedly proven that he can adapt to any event. Small business is resilient."
Indifference to private business
"2026 will be worse than 2025, there is no doubt", said economist Professor Natalia Zubarevich in a television interview. Even analysts close to the government openly speak of a high risk of recession. And only an increase in raw material prices can help partially compensate for budget losses.
As for small and medium-sized businesses, their problems are primarily related to the increase in the basic VAT rate - from 20 to 22 percent from the beginning of 2026, which became the reason for calling it the "closure tax". Protest demonstrations against the reform were held in a number of cities, but President Putin signed it.
During an interview with the DW, candidate of economic sciences Nikolai Kulebyaka explained the decision by saying that the state is looking for additional money for the war and, moreover, does not particularly care about private entrepreneurs. The share of small and medium-sized businesses in the Russian economy is much smaller than in the EU - a little more than 20 percent. While in Germany, for example, small and medium-sized businesses account for about half of GDP, according to EU data.
"However, about a third of the working-age population is employed in small and medium-sized businesses. That is, the share of employed people is higher than the contribution of small and medium-sized businesses to GDP. Therefore, this situation is very sensitive for the labor market." The expert points out that over 29 million people are currently employed in this sector in Russia. "Small and medium-sized businesses create jobs in the regions and replenish local budgets. Therefore, regional budgets, which are already experiencing difficulties, already have problems with revenues, and in the future this situation will become even more acute. The problem will become even bigger," predicts Kulebyaka.
Is a political storm possible?
At the demonstrations at the end of last year, directed against the adoption of the aforementioned tax reform, slogans such as "Death sentence for business", "Raising taxes is robbing the people", "They are killing us", etc. were raised. After Putin signed the amendments, the protest shifted to the Internet.
Economist Igor Lipsits shared with DW the opinion that street protests could resume, but they would be local in nature - people could protest against governors, mayors, local authorities and even against the State Duma, but they would hardly touch the foundation of all foundations. "Political change is possible only through the elite, through a palace coup. And only because the elite will understand that it is no longer profitable for them to be loyal to Putin," Lipsits explains.
Author: Denis Kishnevsky