The Iran war is hurting U.S. influence around the world and straining relations with countries already strained by President Donald Trump’s second term.
That erosion could prove difficult to reverse, as U.S. adversaries like China seize the opportunity to exploit the situation.
From Bangladesh to Slovenia, fuel shortages have paralyzed transportation, angering leaders forced to deal with the fallout from a war they didn’t want. In Muslim-majority countries, the airwaves are filled with anti-American rhetoric, often with the tacit consent of governments. Even America's NATO allies have scaled back their support for the United States, with some stressing that the Trump administration did not consult them before launching military action against Iran, Politico reported.
The war appears to be accelerating what some call a "disintegration." The United States has been at odds with much of the rest of the planet since Trump returned to office and began a chaotic use of economic and military force, including tariffs.
"Many are fed up with how chaotic this war has been and are scared of the potential economic blowback, although I haven't seen any major protests in response," said a diplomat in Washington. “If the next president is a more sensible person, the US image may improve, but that raises difficult long-term questions for policymakers about the alliance: How far can we go in our loyalty to the US, and what should we do if we can no longer rely on them?“
The latest sign of distancing foreign powers came from Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney. In a recent video address, he called his country's economic ties with the United States “weaknesses“ that need to be addressed.“We have to look after ourselves, because we can't rely on just one foreign partner,“ said Carney, who has become increasingly critical of Trump, in part because of his threats against Greenland. “We can't control destabilization from our neighbours. We can’t bet our future on the hope that it will suddenly stop.“
Some former U.S. officials have said that Trump’s constant wavering about his goals in Iran is not credible.
“Allies don’t know what to believe, adversaries don’t know what to fear, and his own cabinet doesn’t understand what his strategy or intentions really are,“ said Thomas Wright, a former National Security Council official in the Biden administration. “The long-term prognosis is not definitive. But the question is what China, Russia, North Korea and Iran will do in the next two years and nine months if this drift continues.“
In response to a request for comment, White House press secretary Anna Kelly said Trump’s “America First” approach has led to better trade deals, expanded counternarcotics partnerships and increased defense spending among allies.
“World leaders have been talking about the threat posed by Iran for 47 years, but no one has had the courage to address it,“ Kelly stressed. “Once all of our goals are achieved, including the ultimate elimination of the Iranian nuclear threat, the entire world will be safer, more stable and better off.“
Since the United States and Israel launched a war with Iran on February 28, the global energy sector has been rocked by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and Iranian attacks on energy facilities in the Middle East. The United States, already the world’s leading oil and gas producer, has strengthened its influence in energy markets in the short term, but those gains may be temporary.
Asian countries most vulnerable to volatile energy prices – some of which have mandated remote work or halted exports to save fuel – have pledged to accelerate renewable energy deployment and restart nuclear power plants, according to media reports.
Europe, having learned its lesson from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, wants to avoid reliance on a single energy supplier. Instead, it plans to expand energy efficiency and renewable energy programs, as well as introduce more electric vehicles.
Many may turn to China, which controls the bulk of solar power supply chains. Beijing produces electric vehicles at extremely low prices and controls the majority of clean energy minerals and batteries.
“The goal here is not simply to overcome the shock. The goal is to use this period of uncertainty to build the foundations for more lasting stability,“ Asian Development Bank President Masato Kanda said last week.
In previous wars in the region, American presidents have managed to rally even reluctant allies, including the Trump administration, which requested help to protect Israeli cities and civilian infrastructure from Iranian attacks last year.
This time, the Trump administration failed to inform even its closest allies in advance and has not made clear requests since, reporters said.
That had consequences. In response to the closure of the strait, Britain and France held several meetings with dozens of allied countries, but without the United States, to develop a plan to keep the strait open after the war. The European initiative will focus on defensive operations to protect commercial shipping, but the timing and composition of the forces are still being worked out.
This comes as the European Union is exploring ways to strengthen the bloc’s collective defense mechanism, Article 42.7, in case it is tested in response to the Trump administration’s threats to seize Greenland by force. However, the article emphasizes that the United States’ defense ties around the world are deep and difficult to break.
Trump has repeatedly threatened to end some of these ties (including leaving NATO) but has not taken serious steps to do so. Many countries, despite their dissatisfaction with Trump, still want to see US military power on their side.
On Monday, the United States and the Philippines began large-scale military exercises in which Japan and Canada are expected to participate, serving as a warning to China. In the Middle East, the US attacks on Iran have provoked a mixed response. Israel remains a staunch partner in the fight against Iran, seeking to weaken the Islamic Republic as much as possible if the regime is not overthrown.
While Gulf states tried to dissuade the US from the initial attacks, many have since been angered by Iran’s retaliatory strikes on their territory. The United Arab Emirates, for example, has increasingly sided with the US, despite reports that it may need financial assistance from Washington.
The war in Iran has also damaged America’s reputation and influence in countries where US efforts to strengthen relations face fierce competition. In an excerpt from a State Department cable, U.S. diplomats in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, warn that “the conflict in Iran has led to the emergence of a persistent anti-American narrative in Tajikistan’s extremely limited media space as foreign actors expand their influence.” The excerpt adds: “Our adversaries are expending resources to ensure that their narrative prevails in a country that sits at the intersection of China, Afghanistan, Russia, and Iran.” Similar cables from Bahrain, Indonesia, and Azerbaijan also describe the spread of anti-American sentiment and warn that in some cases U.S. security and diplomatic ties are at risk. State Department spokesman Tommy Pigott issued a standard statement: “Trump’s actions make the United States and the world safer by preventing the Iranian regime from acquiring a nuclear weapon.” weapons“. That is the reality, and the entire administration is acting unanimously in this direction.“
Trump's actions in Iran have deepened the alienation of some allies that arose when he created the “Peace Council“, conceived as a body to implement the agreement between Israel and Hamas, but which critics suspect is intended to replace the United Nations. Hungary and Bulgaria were the only EU members to formally join the council. Other EU countries have chosen to distance themselves.
However, Trump's supporters argue that any immediate hardship caused by the president's actions in Iran will be worth it in the long run. Alexander Gray, a senior National Security Council official during Trump's first term, said that the decision to deal with Iran now “will pay off for future presidents“.