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What is the Thucydides Trap and why did Xi Jinping mention it in his meeting with Donald Trump?

The Thucydides Trap, a staple of foreign policy commentary, including by former Trump chief strategist Steve Bannon, refers to the idea that when a rising power threatens to displace an established one, the result is often war

Май 21, 2026 17:17 48

What is the Thucydides Trap and why did Xi Jinping mention it in his meeting with Donald Trump?  - 1

A dirty war in the Middle East. Tensions in Taiwan. When the leaders of the world’s two superpowers met in Beijing this week, these were the hot topics everyone expected to talk about, writes Kate Lamb for the Guardian.

Instead, Chinese leader Xi Jinping added another, ancient war to the mix.

In his opening remarks on Thursday, Xi referred to the Peloponnesian War in ancient Greece, a decades-long conflict that erupted between Athens and Sparta in 431 BC.

In an attempt to overcome the hegemonic rivalry, Xi asked:

"Can China and the United States overcome the so-called "Thucydides trap" and build a new paradigm for great-power relations?

What is the Thucydides Trap?

The Thucydides Trap, a staple of foreign policy commentary, including by former Trump chief strategist Steve Bannon, refers to the idea that when a rising power threatens to displace an established one, the result is often war.

"The rise of Athens and the fear it inspires in Sparta make war inevitable," Thucydides wrote in his book "History of the Peloponnesian War".

Just as Athens once fought Sparta, this means that China's rise provokes anxiety and potential conflict with the United States.

Observers note that Xi has been using the term for years, but using the classic reference during Trump's visit may be was a harbinger of his stance on Taiwan.

The Chinese leader later warned Trump that any missteps on Taiwan could push the two countries towards "conflict".

"The Taiwan issue is the most important issue in China-U.S. relations," Xi said, referring to the self-ruled island that Beijing claims as part of its territory.

"If handled incorrectly, the two nations could clash or even enter into conflict, pushing the overall Sino-U.S. relationship into an extremely dangerous situation," he added.

But at a state banquet in the evening, the Chinese leader struck a more conciliatory note, insisting that the U.S. and China can handle the seemingly inevitable strategic friction.

"Achieving the Great Rejuvenation of China" nation and making America great again can go hand in hand... and contribute to the well-being of the entire world," Xi said.

In response on social media, Trump said that Xi "very elegantly referred to the United States as perhaps a declining nation."

Of course, that was not referring to the United States under his leadership, Trump said.

"Two years ago, we were actually a declining nation," Trump wrote on social media early Friday.

"Now, the United States is the hottest nation in the world, and we hope that our relationship with China will be stronger and better than ever!"