Armenia is holding regular parliamentary elections today, billed as a crucial geopolitical referendum on the country's future.
The vote is a direct test of public support for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his course of breaking away from Russian influence and moving closer to the European Union.
Pashinyan's ruling pro-Western "Civil Contract" party is campaigning on European integration, security and economic diversification, and continuing the peace process with Azerbaijan. According to the latest polls by the International Republican Institute (IRI), the party is leading with about 32% support.
The main opposition bloc “Strong Armenia“ is led by billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, who made his fortune in Russia. The party is betting on a full restoration of economic and military ties with Moscow, accusing Pashinyan of “treason“ over the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023.
Karapetyan is under house arrest on charges of attempting a coup, running the campaign through his nephew.
“Armenian Alliance“ is another large opposition force led by former President Robert Kocharyan, which also advocates a strong pro-Russian line.
Just a day before the elections, Armenia's Investigative Committee detained six candidates for parliament from the pro-Russian opposition party “Strong Armenia“. The ruling party attempted to legally remove the main pro-Russian rival from the elections, but Armenia's Central Election Commission officially refused to do so.
International observers and the government in Yerevan have warned of "unprecedented scale Russian disinformation campaigns and hybrid interference aimed at toppling Pashinyan".
A total of 2,483,520 citizens are eligible to vote. The electoral threshold for entering parliament is 4% for independent parties, 8% for coalitions of up to three parties, and 10% for larger alliances. Voting abroad is severely restricted and is only allowed for diplomatic and military personnel. All other Armenians abroad must be physically present in the country to vote.
The elections will decide whether Armenia will continue its gradual exit from the Russian-dominated Collective Security Treaty Organization and reorient itself fully towards the West, or whether the opposition will return the country to the Kremlin's orbit. Given the huge number of undecided voters (nearly 40% according to IRI), analysts do not rule out the possibility of a second round of elections if no force manages to form a stable majority today.
Election day is being closely monitored by a long-term OSCE/ODIHR mission and a delegation from the European Parliament.