Regardless of when and under what circumstances the war in Ukraine ends, Russia will remain a danger to other countries.
However, the West seems to be full of illusions about post-war coexistence with Russia, writes international journalist Dan Sleeth in the Independent.
As the article notes, the widespread assumption in the West is that constant economic and military pressure will eventually force Moscow to change course or lead to the collapse of the current political system. At the same time, the author argues that both scenarios do not take into account the real nature of the processes that have been developing in Russia for many years.
This includes a shrinking working-age population, slowing productivity growth, concentration of investment in the public sector, and a gradual decline in the share of energy export revenues in the federal budget. At the same time, the publication writes, political power is becoming increasingly centralized, and economic opportunities are closely tied to loyalty to the central government.
The full-scale invasion of Ukraine has only exacerbated these problems. Mobilization and emigration have exacerbated labor shortages, defense spending has begun to crowd out civilian investment and social spending, and security forces are forced to compete with each other for an ever-decreasing number of potential recruits. The author notes that the occupied territories, which require significant administrative and financial resources without providing tangible economic returns, have become an additional burden.
“These factors do not act in isolation. They accumulate and reinforce each other“, the journalist emphasizes.
The author also explains why, in his opinion, Russia does not respond to external pressure in the way that many other countries do. While in democratic systems, the escalation of problems often stimulates reforms or the search for compromise, the Russian model of governance is based on confrontation with the outside world.
“Pressure is not proof that the current course is wrong. It is proof that the threat is real“, he explains the logic of the Russians.
According to the author, in the medium term, the Kremlin will likely rely not on large-scale military campaigns, but on cheaper and less resource-intensive instruments of influence – cyberattacks, sabotage, information operations, use of energy levers and proxy activities.
In conclusion, the expert calls on Western governments, businesses and societies not to expect a return to the pre-war reality. Therefore, as the publication notes, strengthening critical infrastructure, democratic institutions and taking into account the long-term risks associated with Russia should become a permanent feature of Western policy, and not simply a reaction to the current war.
Source: www.unian.net