Is it possible for Iran to strike Bulgarian territory through Azerbaijan or another corridor? Bulgarian analyst Ruslan Trad from De Re Militari answers. Here's what he wrote on Facebook:
In general, the idea that the Iranian army could carry out a successful missile attack against a NATO member state is, to put it mildly, exotic. But since some popular online comments are discussing such a possibility, it is worth clarifying, as it is highly speculative and sometimes inaccurate.
From a technical and logistical point of view, Iran has the ability to strike targets on Bulgarian territory, as its launch pads in the northwestern part of the country put parts of Southeastern Europe within range of its ballistic missiles and drones.
However, the idea of a land or air "corridor" through Azerbaijan or other countries for the purpose of striking Bulgaria is extremely unlikely due to strong geopolitical resistance, localized regional military conflicts, and the nature of missile trajectories.
The straight-line distance between Northwestern Iran and Bulgaria is approximately between 1,700 and 2,000 kilometers. Iran has intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBM) and newer intermediate-range variants such as the Shahab-3, Sejjil, Khorramshahr, SIL and KBAR with confirmed operational ranges between 2,000 and 3,000 kilometers. This means that Bulgaria’s territory is at the outer edge of Iran’s direct strike range.
The route through Azerbaijan: It is virtually impossible for Iran to use Azerbaijan as a corridor for military cooperation, which would be necessary if Tehran wanted to strike anywhere through Baku’s airspace. Tensions between the two countries have reached a critical point this year. In March, Iranian drones struck the Azerbaijani exclave of Nakhichevan, prompting Baku to close parts of its airspace and begin actively cooperating with Western intelligence agencies. Baku refuses to provide any military assistance to Tehran.
The route through Turkey and the Black Sea: For a drone or cruise missile to travel the distance from Iranian territory to Bulgaria, it would have to cross Turkish airspace or take a detour over the Black Sea. Turkey is a NATO member and has a solid air defense system, which makes unauthorized overflights of cruise missiles or drones extremely limited and would likely provoke a direct NATO response.
The NATO-US shield: Bulgaria's defense relies heavily on NATO's integrated air and missile defense systems, which cooperate closely with Turkey and Romania to monitor regional airspace. The US also has forces deployed in the Mediterranean and in Europe, through which it protects both its assets and those of its allies.
Bulgaria has its own air defense systems to intercept drones and cruise missiles, but it does not have independent local capabilities to defend against a massive strike with ballistic missiles, and this is not a reason for speculation and political attacks - even countries like Israel, where it invests heavily in air defense capabilities, and the US spends tens of billions every year to strengthen its defense and security forces, do not always cope fully with such attacks, which is why it relies on allies.
Bulgaria has short- and medium-range air defense systems, mainly Soviet S-300PMU, S-125M and 2K12 "Cube". In March, the armed forces brought these units to full combat readiness. They have a high ability to destroy slow-flying drones (such as the Shahed-136) and cruise missiles.
The Bulgarian Ministry of Defense officially admitted that the country does not have its own missile defense systems (the main fault here is the delay in reforms). Bulgaria also does not have modern radar networks providing full coverage of the country's territory, which makes it impossible for Bulgaria to independently intercept an Iranian or other medium-range ballistic missile.
Due to this fact, NATO allies intervened with immediate measures for air patrol and anti-ballistic defense:
The deployment of Greek Patriot missiles: following a regional escalation in March, in which Iranian missiles flew towards Turkey, Greece deployed a Patriot battery to provide direct missile defense over Bulgarian territory. The criticism is that this measure does not fully cover the territory of Bulgaria - and it does not need to: Bulgarian forces also have ways to counter it, while partnering with other NATO members such as Romania and Turkey.
NATO regional shields: Nearby Turkish air and missile defense systems also act as a major physical barrier, monitoring and covering the southern air corridors leading from Iran to Bulgaria. As was seen in the spring, Turkish and US forces stationed in the Mediterranean have no difficulty in countering missiles from Iran.
Bulgaria is actively seeking to decommission its aging Soviet infrastructure. As part of the European Sky Shield initiative:
- Bulgaria has signed a contract to purchase the German IRIS-T SLM medium-range air defense system;
- Bulgaria has contractual options to purchase up to five additional SLM units and one long-range IRIS-T SLX system until 2032 to ensure lasting protection of its airspace.
However, since the delivery dates are spread over several years, these systems are not yet fully operational on Bulgarian territory, but - again - there is active protection against all possible conventional attacks, thanks to Bulgaria's membership in the EU and NATO.