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Rumen Radev's difficult geopolitical balance

Radev, who won an absolute majority of seats in the parliamentary elections in April with his newly formed Progressive Bulgaria party, has always been against military support for Ukraine as president

Aug 3, 2026 20:05 49

Rumen Radev's difficult geopolitical balance - 1

The arrival of two American planes at the "Bezmer'' air base over the weekend has sparked a debate about Prime Minister Rumen Radev's foreign policy. The base, located about 260 kilometers southeast of Sofia, will now serve as a landing site for up to eight American tanker planes for missions in the Middle East, writes the German publication Frankfurter Allgemeine.

Radev, who won an absolute majority of seats in the parliamentary elections in April with his newly formed Progressive Bulgaria party, has always been against military support for Ukraine as president. He argued that Russian aggression cannot be stopped by military means and that a small country like Bulgaria cannot afford to take sides, lest it become a military target.

The second argument in particular resonated with a part of the population – and is now being used as an argument by Iranian policy. The regime in Tehran has repeatedly warned that the deployment of tanker planes not far from Bulgaria's borders with Turkey and Greece could turn Bulgaria into a country participating in the war. This puts Radev in a dilemma in terms of domestic politics, given an obvious question: why do his warnings that Bulgaria should refrain from any conflict not apply in this case as well?

After the parliament in Sofia approved the deployment of troops on July 22, initially with a deadline of October, Tehran issued several warnings that were widely reported in the Bulgarian media. Even before the vote, the regime had warned that allowing the US to use Bulgarian territory for military operations against Tehran would was tantamount to Bulgaria's participation in a war crime. After the meeting, a spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry described the decision as "dangerous" and threatened that it could be interpreted as an act of aggression.

The pressure intensified even more after a telephone conversation between Bulgarian Foreign Minister Velislava Petrova and her Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi, after the two sides published radically different summaries of the conversation. While Petrova's Bulgarian statement emphasized diplomatic formalities that pointed to the good bilateral relations between the two countries, the Iranian statement quoted by the media sounded completely different. According to him, the Iranian minister not only called Sofia's decision "reprehensible" and "unacceptable", but also called on Radev's government "urgently to rethink" this move. Araghchi also warned that the Bulgarian policy can be interpreted in such a way that Bulgaria is classified as an aggressor.

Radev tried to calm his compatriots with the argument that he does not expect a real deterioration in relations, and the US is the most important ally for Bulgaria's security. According to him, if the country does not fulfill its commitments to the US, it cannot expect them to fulfill theirs. However, this did not completely calm the mood, and protests by local residents and demonstrators from large cities have already been held in front of the base several times.

On the other hand, it is considered unlikely that there is a real danger to Bulgaria. The presence of American armed forces at the base is not a new phenomenon, and Bulgaria has been a member of NATO since 2004 and signed a military cooperation agreement with the US back in 2006. In addition, military experts point out that it is hardly in Tehran's interest to attack a NATO country and provoke a response, and Iranian missiles would first have to cross the territory of Turkey, which is also NATO member.

However, in domestic politics, Radev's reputation has suffered its first small scratch. He still has a big lead over the most popular politicians in the country. He has also benefited from his two terms as president of Bulgaria. During these years, Radev presented himself as a statesman, standing above petty party disputes, occasionally showing populist tendencies. In everyday politics, however, Radev can no longer comment on events only from the position of an allegedly disinterested observer - he must act and make decisions.

His attempt to tie the negotiations on the deployment of American aircraft to the lifting of the visa regime for Bulgaria when traveling to the United States failed completely. And the first budget adopted by Radev's government reported a deficit of almost six percent - a record deficit for a new country recently admitted to the eurozone. In preparation for joining the eurozone, to which Bulgaria belongs from this year, the Balkan country has managed its economy in an exemplary manner for many years. eighty six percent - a record deficit for Bulgarian conditions. This discipline seems to be in danger, now that the big goal has already been achieved.