Iran is expanding its campaign of pressure on the US to obtain concessions, analysts and officials in Arab countries in the Persian Gulf region say. According to them, Tehran is specifically turning trade routes, shipping routes and energy infrastructure into points where it pressures Washington to increase the cost of confrontation for it, Reuters notes, BTA reported.
The agency points out that instead of striving for a decisive military victory - something that is practically impossible against the American superpower - Iran is following a strategy of calculated escalation in order to expand the conflict without provoking a full-scale war.
An old and tried military tactic of the weaker, since wars have been fought for thousands of years, is to try to outwit the stronger. And although they succeed relatively rarely, there are many examples of this - from the Greeks against the mighty Persian Empire in ancient times to Vietnam against the United States and Afghanistan and the USSR in the last century.
In modern times, the war in Ukraine, which has been going on for four and a half years, is clear evidence of this. When Russian troops invaded the neighboring country on February 24, 2022, few expected it to continue to resist successfully and to be far from surrendering.
Iran, which has become the subject of another American-Israeli military campaign in recent years, clearly has no choice but to try to outwit its enemies.
So, the strategy of the Islamic Republic, by all accounts, is to resist and increase the cost of the war for the United States to the point of forcing them to give up. To this end, Iran seeks to sow chaos in the Middle East and block the Strait of Hormuz, which is crucial for global oil trade, summarizes Agence France-Presse.
According to analysts quoted by Reuters, Iran wants to convince the United States and its allies that the price of containing the crisis would be higher than satisfying its claims to control the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran's message is that if it does not get a more important role in this key sea route, the conflict will spread beyond the Gulf.
Michael Knights of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy commented to Reuters that Iran has been trying to escalate military actions from the very beginning - geographically, with new weapons and increasing potential targets.
"Their great advantage is not that they can harm America or Israel. "Their great advantage is that they can harm the countries in the region and the global economy," Knights summarizes his thesis.
This is evident, by the way, due to the sharp rise in the prices of oil and other energy carriers, which in turn has shot up inflation and brought enormous difficulties to millions, if not billions, of people around the world.
The BBC writes that it is possible that from the perspective of the Iranian leadership, a controlled confrontation provides more strategic leverage for influence than a lasting ceasefire. This explains, for example, the otherwise surprising Iranian strikes on Jordan, specifically on an air base where American fighter jets are stationed, at the end of last month.
Today, neither side seems ready for a full-scale war, the BBC comments.
Washington shows little appetite for a much broader conflict in the Middle East, which could threaten the region's energy infrastructure, draw more countries into the mix, raise oil prices and open new fronts that would put even greater strain on American military resources. As for Tehran, it may also be seeking to avoid a full-scale war, because its weakened air defenses, vulnerable industrial infrastructure and sanctions-strapped economy make it increasingly difficult and expensive to recover losses.
As a result, the Iranian leadership may have concluded that this opens up space for a strategy based not on military victory but on sustained pressure, the BBC commented. The British public broadcaster argues that a prolonged ceasefire under the current conditions could actually put Tehran in a weaker position. The US naval blockade of Iranian ports would continue, sanctions would remain in place and Iran would still be largely cut off from international energy markets. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and other oil and gas exporting countries in the region could gradually resume normal exports while the Islamic Republic remains economically isolated.
So a limited conflict could change that for Iran. Although it is paying a high military and economic price, disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and pressure around another key sea route, the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, by its Yemeni allies, the Houthis, continue to affect global shipping, insurance costs and energy markets. The uncertainty, even if limited, is forcing governments, shipowners and importers to pay attention to Iran's demands, the BBC comments.
Reuters notes that for now, this strategy seems to be paying off. At a time when threats are spreading beyond the Strait of Hormuz, regional and Western powers are increasingly focusing on protecting trade routes and energy infrastructure rather than increasing pressure on Iran.