Iran and Oman have reached a preliminary agreement on the geographical coordinates of a new shipping route through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baghaei announced.
According to the state news agency IRNA, the finalization of the joint statement by the two countries is in the final stages. A key condition from Tehran for the full opening of the waterway is the complete end of the US naval blockade and the absence of interference from “third parties“.
New details from the negotiations in the Persian Gulf reveal that a framework is being prepared for a temporary restoration of traffic lasting between one and three months. According to Reuters sources, the new diplomatic scheme will give Iran significant sovereign control over incoming shipping traffic. Before the strait was closed in late February following US and Israeli air strikes, it operated as an open international route.
Tehran's position on the technical parameters was also confirmed by Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi in a television interview with state broadcaster IRIB. He explicitly emphasized that the White House's claims about direct negotiations between Washington and the Islamic Republic are false, and that the dialogue with Oman is strictly bilateral. The new plan envisages that commercial ships and oil tankers entering the Gulf will move along a northern corridor in Iranian territorial waters under Tehran's jurisdiction for security and mine clearance.
In parallel, tensions are rising over possible transit fees. Iranian officials are pushing for a "service fee" to cover environmental and maritime costs, to be split equally between Iran and Oman. US President Donald Trump, for his part, issued a stark warning on Fox News, saying the strait must be opened immediately or Iran will be "hit very hard". The US continues to insist on complete freedom of navigation without financial charges.
Geopolitical repercussions and economic consequences
The news of the negotiations immediately calmed international energy markets. According to Bloomberg, the price of Brent crude oil fell 4.5% to $78.20 a barrel, after weeks of speculative gains due to the blockade. US light crude (WTI) also fell 4.1% to $74.10. Traders are betting on a quick recovery of the more than 20 million barrels of oil per day that normally pass through the strait.
Regional powers, however, are reacting with extreme caution and economic discontent:
- Saudi Arabia: Riyadh strongly opposes the introduction of any transit fees by Tehran. According to a statement from the Saudi Ministry of Energy to Al Arabiya, such a levy would make the kingdom's exports more expensive and legitimize Iran's economic dictate over a vital international corridor.
- United Arab Emirates (UAE): Abu Dhabi to step up diplomatic pressure on Oman. UAE authorities are urging Muscat not to sign bilateral agreements that isolate other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, and are warning that maritime safety cannot be held hostage to financial transactions.
Iran's diplomatic push comes at a time of critical resource depletion in the region. Reports cited by Sky News reveal that due to the intense conflict with Iran, the US armed forces have used up nearly 80% of their THAAD missile interceptors and almost all of their long-range precision missiles. The situation nearby is further complicated by attacks by the Yemeni Houthis, who announced successful missile strikes on Saudi tankers in the Red Sea.
Escalation timeline: The road to negotiations
To understand the gravity of the current negotiations between Tehran and Muscat, it is important to consider the context of the events of the past six months:
- Late February 2026: Joint US-Israeli airstrikes on military sites in Iran provoke Tehran to completely close the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping, paralyzing 20% of global oil transit.
- March – May 2026: Global supply chains are disrupted. Brent crude oil prices cross the $100 per barrel mark. The US is deploying additional THAAD systems in the region to protect its Gulf allies.
- June – July 2026: Yemeni Houthis step up attacks on merchant ships, shifting the conflict to the Red Sea. The shrinking US stockpiles of precision weapons are forcing Washington to seek indirect diplomatic channels through Oman.
- August 2026: Oman establishes itself as the sole working mediator, working out a formula for technical and financial management of the strait.
Predictions: What comes next if diplomacy fails?
Economic experts surveyed by the Financial Times warn that the current window for de-escalation is extremely fragile. If negotiations between Iran and Oman collapse - mainly under pressure from Washington or Riyadh - markets will react with unprecedented shock.
Analysts predict an immediate surge in oil prices to $120-130 per barrel within 48 hours of the failure. Such a scenario would unleash a new wave of global inflation, with shipping and cargo insurance costs in the Middle East tripling. The risk of a direct military clash in the Persian Gulf would reach its highest point since the beginning of the crisis.