Russia is losing fighters in ambushes among the vegetation of the dried-up Nova Kakhovka dam, but according to analysts, this is part of a strategy - not for an offensive, but for reconnaissance and exhaustion of Ukrainian forces.
When the Russian army blew up the Nova Kakhovka dam in the summer of 2023, the region changed radically. Now the vast area of the former water basin is full of tall weeds, tangled bushes and other vegetation. This place has also changed the front line, writes the French media France24.
In this place, overgrown with a huge amount of vegetation, drones are not able to detect their targets as effectively. According to media reports, direct fighting is taking place at the bottom of the former dam. Ukrainian forces are trying to track and ambush Russian infantry units that are attempting to penetrate the area, entering the forest themselves to engage in firefights with Russian troops.
According to military expert from the Finnish group Black Bird Emil Kastehelmi, quoted by France24, the dried-up part of the riverbed around the dam should be considered a "no man's land", since it is probably much easier for Russian troops to pass there now. Castelhelmi told the French media that the Russian army is more likely to use the region for reconnaissance purposes than for a direct large-scale offensive.
Why the dried-up dam is strategically important for Russia
Although there is no more water in the basin, the area continues to act as a natural barrier between Russian and Ukrainian troops. Military operations in the area remain very complex to carry out, especially when it comes to larger-scale maneuvers. That is why Kiev would probably prefer that the dam area continue to fulfill this barrier function.
The strategies of both armies are changing - the forest has not fully recovered from the floods, which means that the troops can only use its cover to some extent. The region also has many small streams and lakes, making it more difficult to navigate, notes France24.
The road to Zaporizhia
Zaporozhye is the fifth largest city in Ukraine and has been the scene of active fighting in the region for a long time, as Russia tries to advance towards the regional center. However, this is very complicated, notes the French media - the Russian army is making almost no progress, although Moscow officially declared the Zaporizhia region annexed. Currently, about 75 percent of the region is under Russian control. However, the most important strategic parts of the region remain under Kiev's control.
The dried-up dam and the Dnieper River are making it difficult for the Russian army to reach Zaporizhia. One of the reasons is the unevenness of the bottom of the former dam - the terrain is very difficult to cross with infantry, notes France24.
A potential clash for the city of Zaporozhye would set a precedent in the war in Ukraine. The city was home to about 700,000 people before the start of the full-scale invasion. An attempt to capture such a large regional center would be difficult and would likely involve long and heavy fighting in the city itself. Such a battle would take months, the French media wrote - all the more so given how slowly Russia is advancing in settlements that are ten times smaller than Zaporozhye.
Nevertheless, Russia and Ukraine are playing cat and mouse in the basin of the former "Nova Kakhovka" dam, writes France24. Thus, the Russian army is trying to keep tensions high among the Ukrainians, and the fact that it is losing people due to Ukrainian drone attacks in the region is not a big problem for Moscow. The Russians can take the losses and then force the Ukrainians to keep their troops on the left bank of the river. Russia should direct resources to intelligence in the area - this is its strategy, not to organize an offensive and change the factual situation.