Just a few days ago, the long-awaited law was voted in the USA, which will provide Ukraine with 61 billion dollars in aid, a large part of which will go to the front to withstand and possibly turn the tables of the country in the third year from its opposition to Russian aggression.
In order to defend itself in the third year of the war, Ukraine must change its tactics, Forbes wrote in an analytical material. Up to this point, both armies have adhered to Soviet military doctrine, but with Ukraine running out of artillery ammunition, a change is needed - this may also mean a shift for the Ukrainians to American military doctrine - a shift in emphasis to defense with the ability to quickly going on the offensive. Such a tactic would allow Ukraine to punch holes in the Russian defensive line deployed along key sectors of the front. The important thing about this tactic is that it relies less on artillery and is more focused on elements that can maneuver, such as armored vehicles and infantry, notes Forbes.
Analysts see a hint of this in the recent packages of military aid from Germany and the US, which contained, in addition to ammunition for holding defensive positions, useful ones that are used primarily for offensive operations. In particular, these aid packages included a significant amount of demining equipment, including a remotely operated mine clearance system, sapper plows and demolition machines for clearing obstacles - equipment that will allow the Ukrainians to penetrate deeper into Russian positions, analyzed the edition.
However, what lies ahead and what are the prospects for hostilities in the coming months, the Ukrainian editorial team of the BBC analyzes in its material.
The sky
Russian aviation has returned to the battlefield as a serious factor - it is not only the actions of the Su-24 or Su-34 in Kharkiv or the border areas of the Sumy region, but also the strikes with guided bombs by the Su-25 Rooks on Chasov Yar - that is, directly on the front line.
Russian bombs often fall in the wrong place, but most of them still reach their intended target.
And although the Russians are now limited - not only by the number of aircraft, but also by the number of bombs they can produce, even if the Ukrainian armed forces get the first F-16s quickly, they will not be able to quickly and to reliably stop the threat from Russian aviation.
At the very least, the Russian military has more experienced pilots, more experienced ground crews compared to the hastily trained Ukrainian ones, and most of all - it has more airstrips in the European part of Russia.
And Russia also has long range radar tracking (DRLS) aircraft - although Ukraine shot down two of them and probably damaged several more during ground repairs. But these planes will take to the air when the fight for the initiative in the sky begins.
That is why a quick countermeasure by Russian aviation is hardly possible - squadrons of Western aircraft will arrive in Ukraine in stages, and pilots are trained in 10-month cycles. And these aircraft will also be introduced into combat gradually.
But it will still be better to make low-altitude ambushes of bombers, to shoot down cruise missiles and kamikaze drones that have penetrated Ukrainian air defenses, to conduct reconnaissance missions, to " distribute" electronic warfare and to carry anti-ship missiles on Western aircraft.
Russian reconnaissance drones Supercam and Zala, which often operate in the operational rear of the Ukrainian armed forces near the third line of defense, also remain a threat from the air - they have new optics (probably Iranian) and are connected to an optical channel, so to neutralize electronic warfare. It is through these "eyes" ballistic missiles fly - "Iskander" or their North Korean counterparts, often cassette. This has happened before - for example, an attack on a train in Pokrovsk during loading or the long-range strikes with the "Lancet".
But recently, the number of attacks on the Ukrainian rear has increased significantly - there are attacks on overpasses, railway bridges and in general anything that looks like the location of Ukrainian troops.
From time to time, the Russians repeatedly launch consecutive strikes on the same locations to cause losses to the rescue services as well.
Soviet anti-aircraft arsenal of Ukraine for air defense systems "Wasp", "Strela" or "Tunguska" with photocell-guided missiles or detonation of non-contact detonators at the target, performed well in this war against various drones. But those thousands of missiles that Ukraine inherited from the USSR are running out.
After attacks by hundreds of cruise missiles, shahedis, drones "Orlan" and other reconnaissance drones, the stocks of "Stinger" also run out. What Ukraine got can be roughly estimated at 5-7 years of production of these portable anti-aircraft missile complexes.
And while there is a shortage of air defense systems, more and more Russian drones will penetrate the tactical and operational rear of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Western aid
However, Western aid to Ukraine, despite political difficulties, continues. The United States is not removing Kiev from the balance of power despite the ferocity of its own internal political struggle. In parallel, ammunition contracts are concluded in the West, production of "smart mines" resumes in Germany, and the 35x228 mm projectile plant for "Gapard" will reach the planned capacity in the middle of 2024. Work is also underway on the production of the "Bayraktar" drones. in Ukraine. These drones have proven successful during full-scale campaigns and continue to be used in various missions.
Although in current conditions they are more effective as reconnaissance, but also as radar carriers, that is, as radar stations that can simultaneously monitor the airspace, do mapping and electronically jam targets. This is exactly the type of modernization that the Poles are doing now with Italian equipment.
There is also the "drone coalition", within the framework of which France, Germany, Great Britain and other countries are sending Ukraine hundreds of kamikaze drones and reconnaissance devices.
Europe expands production of launchers for Ukrainian Patriot batteries, but also the "European Sky Shield" (a project to strengthen the air defense of the European NATO countries - note ed.) will require capacity and specialists. In addition, Poland, Germany, Romania, Spain and the Netherlands will purchase up to a thousand PAC-2 GEM-T missiles capable of operating against ballistic targets.
As for projectiles, there are prospects for Ukraine to receive 1.5 million 155-mm ammunition from EU countries, including through the "Czech initiative". At the same time, it is worth recalling that in the 1990s, the American arsenal in view of the war with the Soviet Union consisted of 10 million pieces of 155 mm shells - so it is likely that these stocks can still be found somewhere.
Today in Europe four countries produce 155 mm shells: Great Britain (BAE Systems), Germany (Rheinmetall), France (Nexter) and Finland together with Norway (Nammo). The Finns, for example, have orders planned six years ahead - you buy today, but your queue plans to receive the delivery in 2030. For all productions, volumes are growing significantly, and so are investments. And this is an indicator that the European industry is actually working and preparing to work in support of Ukraine.
The latest aid packages from Germany are the best barometer of what is happening with Ukraine's partners - 130 Marder infantry fighting vehicles upgraded to the 1A3 version and several hundred drones went to strengthen the Ukrainian armed forces.
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Russian military production
At the same time, the Russians continue to mobilize their rear - there are countless reports in the Russian news that former factories of Western companies in the Russian Federation have started producing gunpowder, and bread factories - drones. Of course, in such a production there will be defects, missed deadlines and other remarks.
However, equipment and weapons are still actively supplied to the Russian military. The release of up to 500 suicide bombers per month and 180 guided bombs per day is also an indicator of war trends.
Videos of the equipment of the killed Russian soldiers appear on social networks - they have digital walkie-talkies, good first aid kits, night sights, body armor made of ceramic plates, knee pads. And that's for infantry, not special forces. This is a noticeable difference with the mobilization model of 2022. So the Russians are adapting to war and equipping their army at the same time.
And under such conditions, Ukraine must "run to stay in place" with all his might.
The ability to mobilize the home front and wage an all-out war, rather than relying solely on EU and US resources, means a lot for Ukraine's future. These are fundamental things about Ukraine - not even about whose Ugledar or Tokmak will be. And for her survival.
Because if Russia can advance deep into Ukraine, it will. If the Russians can turn Kherson or Kharkiv into ruins with bombs and artillery, they will not fail to do so.
The missile strikes
The goal in the Russians' plans for this summer's campaign is obvious - massive combined attacks of attack drones and single-target ballistic salvos.
As was already the case with Zmiivskaya or Tripolskaya TPP - it is trivial to exhaust air defense in one sector and hit a specific target with missiles, disabling it for many months.
The Russians are aiming here to strike at the energy sector with an impact on Ukraine's economy and military-industrial complex at a time when it is starting to ramp up its own weapons production.
Moscow wants to influence this by disrupting the energy sector, as its winter campaign of shelling scattered factories has been less effective - Ukraine continues to produce long-range drones, naval surface drones and self-propelled guns.
Directions of the offensive
Chasov Yar and its heights are the gateway to Konstantinovka and further to the Slavic-Kramatorsk agglomeration. The Russians there have the opportunity to hide in the ruins of Bakhmut and build up forces, as well as work with bombs outside the city. They will try to knock out the Ukrainian armed forces near Klescheevka and force the Seversky Donetsk-Donbas direction.
The Russians haven't given up on their plan to break out of the dense build-up here and then penetrate the operational space beyond.
And the attack on Kupyansk is a struggle for logistics. If the Ukrainian armed forces retaliated there, it would already be a threat to the Russian lines - it is difficult to dig three lines of concrete fortifications in the surrounding forests.
And finally, the front section Kremena - Svatovo is an important artery, "foreground" on the railway line to Starobelsk. The Russians want to advance here so that the Ukrainian armed forces do not hit the railway.
The Russians are spending huge resources on attacks on villages and fields in this area and as far as Kupyansk. They are trying to move the precision weaponry of the Ukrainian armed forces away from the railway line. In addition, the Russian army has tried several times since last year to advance near Ugledar, regularly sending dozens of equipment there, including T-72B3 tanks produced in 2022 and old T-55s.
That is, there will be a positional war in strategically important sectors - a big role will be played not only by engineering fortifications, but also by the presence of military gross product: mines, heavy infantry weapons and wagons with shells.
The preparation of the nape
This is why the mobilization of the Ukrainian rear will be important. It would probably make sense to ask the Allies for machine tools and to reform the vocational schools. Another option is decentralization and moving production to different locations.
Another theoretical option is the transfer of production and the creation of jobs for Ukrainian refugees in Eastern Europe.
In general, military production in the conditions of war is quite realistic - during the Second World War, the Germans expanded their military-industrial complex under the strategic bombing of the Allies and could produce hundreds of thousands of tons of bombs per year. And then it wasn't about 20 missile attacks a week - this was done during months of bombing production facilities with dozens of direct hits in workshops.
And Ukraine now needs literally everything - from trucks, various ammunition, mortar mines and guided mines, various air defense launchers for air-to-air missiles adapted for launching from the ground, long-range drones and dozens of missiles (for example "Neptune" for shooting not only at sea, but also on land).
From the frontline footage, it is noticeable that during Russian tank attacks they are covered by either artillery fire or FPV drones, and there is not much action with anti-tank missile systems. Although the Ukrainian steppes have all the conditions for them. However, the reserves are not many - and this despite the large arsenals of the USA and EU countries.
But the phase of the "war of attrition" is such that everything can end. Therefore, Ukraine should not depend on the internal politics of other countries, but should do everything to produce as much as possible at home, to produce realistically.
And what cannot be produced in Ukraine, to buy on credit, to re-export and to buy weapons from the Gulf countries with additional payment for urgency.
Russia actually lost the "quick" war against Ukraine, which he planned for 2022. But the Kremlin is trying to either freeze the situation, work on its mistakes and try again. It would be trivial to defeat the Ukrainian armed forces with its own resources on the battlefield - waves of men and masses of equipment. At the same time, the Russian army is stockpiling missiles for attacks on the rear and urban sites. And it equips new units - tank and artillery brigades and regiments, although based on outdated D-1 howitzers and T-55 tanks - they are still serious weapons.
Moscow is ready for a sustained campaign - the Russians may have accumulated enough equipment by the end of the year (considering the number of golf carts and other unexpected vehicles they now use due to the lack of standard armored vehicles).
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But the Kremlin seems to have staked everything on this war. And the Russians are ready to spend all their resources for years to come to occupy as much Ukrainian territory as possible.
Therefore nothing is decided and nothing is finished yet in this war.
What is known, however, is that Ukrainians are facing a tough summer.