For a long time Aleppo was considered a symbol that demonstrated Russian power. It was the Russian military that helped Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad capture the city in late 2016 after four years of fighting. Now, in less than four days, Aleppo has fallen into rebel hands, which could also be interpreted as a Kremlin failure.
„Russia is no longer able to support the Assad regime as it did ten years ago,The main difference compared to 2016: now Russia is much busier with its aggression against Ukraine. After February 2022, the Russian presence in Syria began to shrink,
Until now, Russia has carried out mostly airstrikes
The Russian military contingent in Syria has always been small. When in 2015. Vladimir Putin decided to militarily support Bashar al-Assad in the civil war, he transferred to Syria mainly air units and between 2,000 and 4,000 soldiers. That number is probably unchanged, though no official figures have ever been provided.
Roughly the same number of mercenaries, such as those from the „Wagner“ group, were also involved in ground operations in Syria, but they are now fighting in Ukraine.
„The Kremlin's strategy was to have Syrian, Iranian and Shiite militias fight and Russian forces support, not the other way around,Some forces have apparently withdrawn from Syria
Can Russia fill this shortfall in ground forces? It would be very difficult to increase aid to Assad without weakening our own troops in Ukraine,
Pavel Luzin, an expert on the Russian armed forces, tells DW.
Following the attack on Ukraine in 2022. Russia has denied that it intends to withdraw its troops from Syria. But now there are indications that some of the fighter jets have been returned to their bases in Russia, the S-300 air defense missile system has been diverted to a Russian port near Crimea. There has also been a regrouping of soldiers in Syria who have vacated their former positions and been transferred to larger bases. It is true that there are other Kremlin mercenaries in Syria, but „they are not specialized in combat operations, but perform other tasks such as guarding oil production facilities“, says Ruslan Syuleymanov.
Moscow will not abandon Syria
Although the war in Ukraine is a clear priority for Russia, it will not turn its back on Syria. "The Kremlin certainly won't abandon Assad," says Suleymanov. He recalls that Russia has two important military bases in Syria that it will not abandon - the naval base in Tartus and the air base in Khmeimim.
Syria is important for the Kremlin and for maintaining Russia's image as a superpower. After the West's failed interventions in Iraq and Libya, Russia wants to present itself as a stabilizing factor in the region and establish itself as an important player in the Middle East.
Better to negotiate than to send new troops
Russia's initial reactions to the rebel offensive indicate that it would prefer not to send additional military resources to Syria. Nevertheless, it has stepped up its airstrikes. According to the Russian Telegram channel „Rybar“, General Alexander Chaiko, who has led Russian troops in the country in the past, has also arrived in Syria.
At the same time, Moscow is seeking contact with other powers involved in the conflict, primarily Turkey, which has benefited most from the rebels' advance. Putin has spoken by phone with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and representatives of Russia, Iran and Turkey are due to meet over the weekend.
„There are going to be very difficult and tense negotiations for the Kremlin, which is already wasting a lot of energy, nerves and resources on Ukraine,By Grzegorz Szymanowski