The scene was symptomatic: just before Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau officially announced his resignation, a strong gust of wind blew the text of his speech off the lectern. But the whirlwinds had been gathering over Trudeau's head for a long time: he was dealt a particularly big blow in mid-December, when his longtime confidant, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance Chrystia Freeland, left the cabinet after a dispute with Trudeau, writes ARD.
After that, more and more leading Liberals began to demand that Trudeau step down before this year's elections. "It has become clear to me that I am not the best option for the elections, since I am forced to lead internal party struggles," Trudeau said in his statement, quoted by the German public-law media.
Trust in Trudeau's Liberals is at a record low
However, the decision to resign came too late, most Canadian media comment. For months, trust in Trudeau and his Liberal Party has been declining, as polls show. Three out of four respondents in Canada consider his resignation to be the right move, only 20% want to vote for the Liberals again. Twice as many, i.e. over 40 percent, supported by the opposition Conservative Party.
Darrell Bricker, one of Canada's leading sociologists, sees several reasons for Justin Trudeau's failure: “Canadians' concerns about the high cost of living, the lack of affordable housing and something that has never been a problem in Canada before - immigration policy“.
Mistakes in immigration policy
Trudeau's immigration policy has led to the arrival of over three million immigrants in Canada since 2016. Too many to be successfully integrated, Trudeau himself admitted self-critically. Many Canadians have the impression that the prime minister ignores economic problems and their everyday woes at the expense of his liberal agenda - caring more about the legalization of cannabis or reconciliation with indigenous peoples, ARD notes.
Trudeau also failed to fulfill his promise to restructure the Canadian economy so that it does not harm the climate. Ultimately, the mood in the country deteriorated completely, as Bricker pointed out to the German public-law media, by the declared intention of the next US president Donald Trump to impose a 25% tariff on goods from Canada: “Our economy is incredibly dependent on trade relations with the US. Tariffs would be devastating for the Canadian economy“.
Trump laughed at Trudeau
Trudeau tried to dissuade Trump during his visit to the US. But the mission had rather the opposite effect, ARD writes. Trump mocked the "governor of the 51st state" of Canada. And after Trudeau's resignation, Trump renewed his proposal to merge Canada with the United States.
The political unrest in Canada comes at a very inopportune time - and not only because of the customs dispute. Canada has just assumed the presidency of the G-7. By the time the new parliament reconvenes on March 24, the Liberal Party needs new leadership. The decision on the matter will be made by the party leadership in the coming days. The favorites are the resigned Finance Minister Freeland and the former head of the Central Bank of Canada, Mark Carney, ARD reported. The German public-law media outlet adds that Trudeau's possible successors include Foreign Minister Melanie Joly and new Finance Minister Dominique LeBlanc.
Conservative Party expected to win
But regardless of who comes out on top, Canada faces early elections, as neither the Conservatives nor the left-wing New Democratic Party want to govern with the Liberals. New elections could be held as early as May, with the Conservative Party likely to score a major victory.
Its leader, 45-year-old Pierre Poilievre, could become the next prime minister. He has the image of a traditional conservative and an expert on economics, rather than a right-wing populist. Unlike Trump, Poilievre favors free trade, is a supporter of a strong alliance with European allies in NATO, and wants to continue supporting Ukraine.