Arms for Ukraine worth billions and “very heavy tariffs“ against Russia if peace is not reached within 50 days - Donald Trump announced a reversal in his position on the war in Ukraine and issued threats to Moscow after a meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte. The US president's tone had nothing to do with the goodwill towards Putin that he has demonstrated before. “We want to ensure that Ukraine can do what is necessary“, the US president stressed.
Sanctions on Russia's trading partners and weapons for Kiev
Trump did not threaten only Russia. He also issued a warning to countries that still trade with the Kremlin - including China and India, which buy oil and gas from Russia. A new bill in the Senate provides for punitive tariffs of up to 500 percent for countries that fill the Kremlin's military coffers.
The United States is also ready to send a huge amount of weapons to Ukraine, for which Europe will pay. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius confirmed that the Federal Republic is ready to purchase two Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems to be provided to Kiev. Norway, Finland, Sweden, Denmark, Great Britain and Canada are also ready to provide funds for additional armament of Ukraine, Mark Rutte assured.
The real reason: Trump is offended by Putin
But do Trump's latest moves mark a sharp turn in the attitude towards the war in Ukraine and NATO? Far from it, writes the reputable American publication “The Atlantic“ after talks with White House officials. The American president has neither become a fan of Volodymyr Zelensky nor has he deeply believed in the importance of the transatlantic partnership as a counterweight to the Kremlin. The reason for this change is that Trump has actually… taken offense, writes Jonathan Lemaire.
Putin has been ignoring Trump’s attempts to reach a truce for months. And the American president has made many efforts to demonstrate closeness to him - he even attacked Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House and briefly suspended the exchange of intelligence information between Kiev and Washington. In February, when Trump spoke for the first time with Putin on the phone, it became clear that the two discussed improving relations between their countries, including trade and economic ties.
But in the following months, American calls for a ceasefire in Ukraine went unheeded, notes “The Atlantic“. Back in the spring, Trump told his advisers that he thought Moscow did not want to end the war, the publication’s sources say. American services have long since reached this conclusion. Trump's appeals, including a message on social media that read "Vladimir, STOP!", have had no effect, and this makes the American president feel humiliated.
“I talk to him a lot about finishing this job. Then I hang up the phone and say, "It was a nice conversation," and then the Russian missiles are launched at Kiev or some other city,“ Trump complained to reporters in the Oval Office. “And after that happens three or four times, you say the conversations don't matter.“
Will Trump change his mind again?
Trump's disappointment with Putin is welcome for Ukraine, which will get a breather with the new arms deliveries. At the same time, it is not yet clear how sustainable this support will be. "I think Trump confronting Putin and showing strength is a good thing, even if it is for the wrong reasons," commented Russian opposition figure and former world chess champion Garry Kasparov.
"Do I think Trump is now pro-Ukrainian? Please. Not at all," commented Mark Polymeropoulos, a former CIA officer, to “The Atlantic“. “But Europe should continue to plan with the idea that the United States is not a reliable ally, because Trump can still change his mind.“
Experts are also skeptical about how much Trump's change in policy towards Russia will change Putin's behavior. "We've seen a number of ultimatums from Trump in the past," Jennifer Kavanaugh of the US think tank Defense Priorities told ARD. She doesn't believe that this 50-day ultimatum will change Putin's position in any way. After all, the sanctions Trump is threatening "could hurt the US economy more than anyone else." Trump also seems to be "changing his position on Putin and the situation in Ukraine almost every week."
Europe needs to "open its wallets"
On the occasion of the announced new arms deliveries, Kavanaugh commented: “Hopefully, these “Patriot“ anti-aircraft systems, if they really arrive quickly in Ukraine, will be able to protect civilian objects and save human lives. But this is not about weapons that will decisively change the military balance on the front.“
Yet, Trump's recent decisions and statements mark a turning point. Until now, he has always insisted that the war in Ukraine is “Biden's war“. “By announcing a completely new way to receive aid from Ukraine, he is turning this war into his war,“ Kavanaugh believes. Therefore, according to the expert, in the future it will be much more difficult for Trump to follow the voices in his government that want Washington to completely abandon Ukraine, as isolationists such as J.D. Vance and Steve Bannon are calling for.
In any case, the most important thing right now is Europe and its willingness to pay for Ukrainian weapons. Or as Boris Pistorius commented: “We all have to open our wallets.“