“I think Putin offers Trump a convenient way out“, says Dmitry Suslov, deputy director of the Center for European and International Studies at the Higher School of Economics and a respected Kremlin advisor on foreign policy issues, in an interview with Corriere della Sera.
"Focus" presents a translation of the interview without editorial intervention
What does Putin expect from the Alaska summit?
There are two possible options. The first is for the two presidents to adopt a bilateral Russian-American plan to achieve a ceasefire in Ukraine. This is of fundamental importance from the Kremlin's point of view: the agreement is between us and the United States, without Ukraine and Europe. This plan could include the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the areas of Donbas where they are still present, and the withdrawal of Russia from the Sumy, Dnepropetrovsk and Kharkiv regions, with the front line in the other areas remaining unchanged. I recall that a year ago Moscow demanded a complete withdrawal from all four annexed provinces from the Ukrainians, while now it only wants this from the Donbas. A key part of the agreement is Ukraine's commitment not to join NATO.
So it's not just a matter of exchanging territories?
Obviously not. The commitment not to join the Atlantic Alliance is an insurmountable condition for any ceasefire. After that, the final agreements will naturally have to include the demilitarization of Ukraine and constitutional reform in a federal sense.
But you knew this. What is the real news?
First, Russia is now ready to talk about a ceasefire, not just a final agreement. Second, Putin wants a little less for a ceasefire than he did a year ago.
You mentioned two options. What is the second one?
Zelensky, supported by the Europeans, rejected this solution, and then Trump would cut off all military aid to Kiev and even stop selling weapons to the Europeans because they are ceding it to Ukraine. But this will hasten defeat and total collapse.
And why in this case would Trump act against Kiev without taking any punitive measures against Moscow, as he had promised?
"If Trump supports the option of an agreement so strongly and almost enthusiastically, it is also because he put himself in a difficult position when he asked China, India and Brazil to stop importing Russian oil, threatening them with secondary sanctions. China, of course, refuses, but New Delhi and Brazil would never do it either, and their refusal would be a problem for America: at this point, either Trump backs down, looking weak, or he gets dragged into a serious political and trade conflict with China and two central BRICS countries, with unpredictable results. If the summit in Alaska is successful, with the approval of a common plan for a ceasefire in Ukraine, the fuse that he recklessly lit with China, India and Brazil will be defused and the American president could even claim historical merit. That is why we expect Trump to accept Putin's proposal. For him, this is precisely the way out.
Why Alaska? The symbolism of the place has been widely commented on.
"Yes, this is a significant choice from a historical and political point of view. First of all, Alaska emphasizes the bilateral nature of the meeting. There is no more Russian-American place in the world than Alaska: far from Europe and Ukraine, very close to Russia. It emphasizes the fact that Putin and Trump are finding a solution to the war in Ukraine themselves. Second, the meeting in Alaska will be the first full-fledged summit between Russia and the United States on American soil in 15 years, the last was in 2010, when Dmitry Medvedev visited Barack Obama in Washington. This shows the strong mutual will to turn the page of the conflict and improve our relations. Thirdly, the agenda predetermined the choice of the venue: in addition to Ukraine, the Arctic will also be discussed, a key moment in bilateral relations. There is a fierce confrontation in the region, which could escalate into an armed conflict.
The military activities of both Russia and the United States are intensifying. But with the melting ice and its greater accessibility, the Arctic is also the most promising area for the development of new relations for economic cooperation between our two countries: joint research, exploration and exploitation of raw materials, trade.