Did Rumen Radev choose a suitable moment for himself to resign as president and how the political landscape in the country is changing, political scientists Atanas Radev and Boris Popivanov, and sociologists Boryana Dimitrova and Evelina Slavkova, commented for BTA.
The resignation
The moment is suitable in view of the upcoming early parliamentary elections, said political scientist Atanas Radev and noted the energy that is being formed after the protests. He added that Rumen Radev is using the halo that the institution gives. He is setting a precedent in history, the political scientist said.
President Rumen Radev has chosen the last possible moment for him to resign and embark on active politics, said sociologist Evelina Slavkova. According to her, in politics, it is difficult to speak of a “right“ or “wrong“ moment in an absolute sense, but rather of varying degrees of political cost and benefit. According to Slavkova, if Radev had decided to create a political project after the end of his mandate, the political effect of such a move would have been significantly weaker. Resigning during his mandate gives him the opportunity to capitalize on his institutional legitimacy, the accumulated public visibility and his image as an active political factor, rather than a politician returning after a break. In this sense, the decision can be interpreted as an attempt to maximize the use of his political resources.
Political scientist Boris Popivanov also defined the moment as appropriate, emphasizing the consistency in Radev's behavior. He recalled that Radev had applied for a second term exactly a year before the expiration of the first, and is now applying for the post of prime minister a year before the end of his second term. According to Popivanov, the current political moment is favorable for the entry of a new party project due to the exhaustion of the political cycle that began with the protests of the summer of 2020. According to the political scientist, the hopes associated with both the pro-European liberal line of “We continue the change“ and “Democratic Bulgaria“, as well as the Eurosceptic nationalist line of “Vazrazhdane“, have been severely compromised. In this context, Radev is positioning himself as a figure who publicly announces the end of this period and offers an alternative capable of attracting support from different political directions.
From the personal position of President Radev and from the point of view of his political project, the moment has been chosen very appropriately, said Boryana Dimitrova. She noted that the parliamentary political forces have made a kind of gift to politician Radev, providing him with this opportunity for a flying start. According to her, the situation is favorable for at least three reasons. First, he still benefits from his institutional rating, which is significantly higher than that of other political leaders. Second, the protests have increased social energy, the desire of people to vote and have their voices heard. They have brought to the forefront the messages of “mafia – anti-mafia“, “oligarchy – anti-oligarchy“, which, although formulated by other political forces, will now also play for Radev, Dimitrova pointed out. And third, he avoids the need to define himself on key geopolitical issues that affect all European countries, and uncertainty, at least for a short period of time, will play in his favor. In just a few months, let alone after the end of the regular mandate, such a favorable combination would be difficult to achieve, she commented.
Changing the political landscape
He comes with a very big request, especially listening to his address to the nation that he will seek an anti-mafia consensus, which brings to mind the thesis of his colleague Milen Lyubenov about the corruption-anti-corruption divide. His idea is actually rooted in seeking agreement on this topic, commented Atanas Radev. According to him, there is no need to look for the messages in the speech, because it is very clear who he was speaking against. Over all these nine years, it has been clear who his political opponents are and who the bloc he wants to form around himself is, the political scientist added. We should not forget that in 2021, the attempt to be re-elected was precisely through such a bloc - of protest parties, of status quo change, said Atanas Radev.
Regarding the changes in the political landscape after the resignation of the President, Evelina Slavkova outlined several main effects. According to her, the emergence of a new political project with a clearly recognizable leader could affect voter turnout by mobilizing apathetic and hesitant voters, including people who do not identify with traditional parties and are looking for an alternative outside the established status quo. Slavkova added that such a move would inevitably put pressure on existing parties and could lead to both an outflow of support from certain formations and new coalition configurations. In the event of successful consolidation around a new political project, a restructuring of the parliament with a smaller number of political forces compared to the current highly fragmented picture is also possible. More broadly, this would strengthen the trend towards personalization of politics, in which trust is concentrated more in personalities than in party programs and ideologies.
Boris Popivanov said that the effect of Radev's resignation and the possible creation of his party would spread across the entire political space. According to Popivanov, this could put smaller parties such as ITN, BSP and others in a serious test and dissuade voters who have so far seen in “We continue the change - Democratic Bulgaria“ or “Vazrazhdane“ the main opponents of the status quo. According to Popivanov, Radev's potential is significant, but expectations for him will also be extremely high, as anything below first place and below 90-100 MPs would be perceived as a failure. Popivanov said that, although the forecasts are premature, after 2009 this is the first politician with a real chance of achieving such a result. As an important consequence of the resignation, Popivanov also highlighted the fact that Bulgaria has the first female president in its modern history - Iliyana Yotova, who took office in a highly polarized political environment and with the challenge of appointing a caretaker government.
For the time being, the nature of the campaign will fundamentally change. Once the election results are clear, then we will be able to talk about the bigger changes, said Boryana Dimitrova. According to her, at this stage, Radev's project has serious chances to attract voters from parties with which they have similar ideological and value views. Some of them will be weakened to the point that they will not be part of the next parliament, others may enter, but overall the nationalist, nostalgic and Russophile vote will be represented by Radev's project, Dimitrova believes. According to her, the opposition along the "status quo-anti-status quo" line will create options for a possible future partnership between Radev and some of the opposition parties, but the vision for judicial reform will be key here. Whether it will be possible to seek a majority of 160 votes at all, with whom and in the name of what, remain open questions. And, last but not least, the clash between management decisions and the diverse expectations of voters will show how sustainable this project will be and how deeply it can change the political landscape in the country, commented Dimitrova.