It is an illusion that Radev is not making waves. The formation around him has every chance of being first. This was stated by the owner and director of the sociological agency "Mediana" Kolyo Kolev in the program "Bulgaria, Europe and the World in Focus" on Radio FOCUS.
In his words, the situation is reminiscent of previous electoral reversals. He drew a parallel with the rise of Simeon Saxe-Coburg-Gotha and Boyko Borisov, when preliminary attitudes did not show the real scale of the subsequent vote.
"This is a bit like a tsunami. At the beginning there is an earthquake that displaces the water layers. The wave becomes huge when it reaches the shore. We see the tremor that is shifting the layers, and the formation around Radev clearly has every chance of being the first", Kolev pointed out.
"It will be a dirty campaign in the classical Bulgarian traditions, we will observe this once again. It is already visible with the attempts to morally denigrate the other. The main attack against Radev's formation will come from "Vazrazhdane", who definitely feel threatened by his appearance. PP-DB will also attack him, and more or less Borisov and Peevski will try to stand aside, leaving the dirty work to others", he predicted.
According to the sociologist, the "Petrohan" case has been used by the parties to accumulate political dividends, but this does not work in their interest.
"This will more or less rub off, for the simple reason that people clearly foresee politicization behind all these things. Another issue is that the event itself and its coverage once again confirmed the distrust in institutions. This will only affect the elections by strengthening the desire for change, so it will be directed specifically against the ruling party and will more or less pour grist into the mill of the opposition formations," he further explained.
Kolev did not rule out the possibility that the formation around Radev will be the first political force, even indicating that it has every chance of reaching 50%, although he described this probability as not particularly strong at this stage.
According to him, the configuration after the vote will depend on the difference in mandates: "It is one thing not to have 10 votes for a governing majority, it is another to have 40 not to have enough". As potential partners, he pointed to PP-DB, "Vazrazhdane", possibly BSP or MECH, if they pass the barrier.
"The possibility of governing is formed before, not after the elections", the sociologist warned, adding that excessive confrontation could make future talks impossible.
"There are national issues that need to be resolved", he emphasized, giving the example of the judicial system, on which, in his opinion, a broader consensus should be sought.