Although Iran appears militarily weakened, the regime there remains dangerous, says security expert Nico Lange. And the development of the conflict is also of key importance for Ukraine.
ARD: US President Donald Trump claims that the US has unlimited weapons stocks. However, there are clearly doubts in Congress about this issue. How well-founded do you think they are?
Nico Lange: No one has unlimited ammunition stocks. No one has unlimited production capacities. And for some types of ammunition, for example, for guided air defense missiles, the stocks are limited. The US has enough to continue this operation. But if they have to transfer supplies from the Indo-Pacific region to the Middle East for this purpose, if they cannot deliver more to Ukraine, this will lead to shortages elsewhere.
ARD: How are things with Israel? What are the capabilities of the Israeli army, which is currently massively attacking Lebanon?
Israel is conducting an operation in Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah from firing on its territory. Israel has the necessary military capabilities for this and can continue to carry out air strikes against Iran, especially now that Israel and the United States control the airspace over Iran. So it is no longer necessary to use weapons that fire from very long distances. This can be done with airplanes and drones.
But the issue of air defense is also important for Israel. If the Revolutionary Guard continues to be able to launch drones and missiles at Israel, the stock of missiles for air defense will begin to thin. And then there will be more strikes. Now the frequency of launches has decreased - Iran is firing less than in recent days. But the Revolutionary Guard is still able to act. And this risk continues to exist.
"The United States is not prepared for an asymmetric war"
ARD: The American president claims that the Iranian air force, navy and air defense have been destroyed, and the army is exhausted. How weakened is Iran in your assessment?
This is a very difficult question. The fact is that the Americans and the Israelis very quickly managed to deal with Iran's combat fleet and air defense, control the airspace and can operate freely there. But there is another side to things - the many cheap drones, thousands of them, that have been launched so far, decentralized launch platforms and missiles hidden somewhere in the mountains, underground facilities and small boats that can cause problems for large ships in the Strait of Hormuz and elsewhere.
It is precisely this asymmetric war that the United States armed forces are not prepared for. You can see the problems that the United States, Israel, but also the neighboring countries in the Persian Gulf have, for example, with defense against drones. And until the command structures of the Revolutionary Guard are completely destroyed, they can continue to launch drones and missiles, and this poses a great danger.
Ukraine can make a deal
ARD: How likely is it that the Persian Gulf countries will be left without air defense?
Lange: They have a problem with drones. The Gulf states, as well as some others, including the United States, have turned to Ukraine, which has experience with Iranian Shahed drones. With air defense systems such as THAAD and Patriot, many interceptors, i.e. guided missiles, have been launched in a short period of time, which are rapidly running out. In recent days, more have been launched than can be produced in a whole year. This raises two questions: How long will the stockpile last, and what will happen when the guided missiles run out? We also have to ask ourselves where all those who need them will get these missiles from?
This affects us, it affects Ukraine, it affects the Gulf states, it affects the Americans themselves. There are difficulties in production. And it is a pity that the manufacturers have not been able to expand production even after four years of Russia's aggressive war against Ukraine.
ARD: What does all this mean for Ukraine, which currently needs anti-aircraft systems, which are now probably needed in the Middle East?
Lange: It is bad news for Ukraine that so many Patriot missiles are being launched now. At the beginning of winter, Ukraine no longer had any. And Russia caused very great damage with ballistic missiles. People had to sit in the cold and in the dark. This will be a very difficult question for Ukraine - how to get these missiles.
Perhaps the chance is to conclude a barter deal: Ukraine should help the affected countries defend themselves against Iranian drones, which it can do very well and knows how to do cheaper, instead of spending so many missiles on the "Patriot" systems. In return, Ukraine should receive missiles and ammunition to be able to defend itself against Russian missiles. I hope such a barter deal is feasible.
What is the goal of the US?
ARD: How big do you think the risk is that the US will get involved in a longer war in the Middle East, and not one that will end in four to six weeks, as the White House has already announced?
I find the signals from the White House confusing because I don't understand what military goal needs to be achieved in this timeframe. If the goal of the war is to eliminate Iran's leaders, that has already been achieved. If the goal is to destroy the Revolutionary Guard's command structures, to render the Revolutionary Guard incapable of action - it is not entirely clear at this time how things will develop, but it could be achieved.
However, if the goal is regime change or truly profound change in Iran, we must ask ourselves whether this can be achieved with air strikes alone. It is not clear from current statements by what criteria the United States will judge when this military operation is over. And if the retaliatory strikes continue, continuing the operation is also associated with significant risks. I hope that the United States will dismantle the Revolutionary Guard - an organization that is rightly designated as a terrorist organization that brutally oppresses and kills its own people – and that this could mean the end of this war, so that Iran has a chance for another development.
Niko Lange is a military expert, a fellow at the Munich Security Conference and a lecturer at the University of Potsdam.