The war in Iran brings many uncertainties, but there are also some obvious things, blurred by the noise and impatience of social media, which imposes its frantic pace on both life and war. This is one of the rules of war: you cannot judge the outcome of an operation until it is over and the dust has settled. After only two weeks of fighting, it is too early to talk about a stalemate. Although Donald Trump's plans, as in most conflicts, did not withstand the reality check. This is what political analyst Isabelle Lasser points out in an article for the French newspaper Le Figaro.
On the 16th day of the war, all scenarios are still possible. First up is what analysts consider either the worst or the best: a ceasefire. Those who see it as the worst-case scenario emphasize that it would allow the mullahs’ regime to remain in power. European and Arab diplomats who are calling for it say it would prevent “chaos” and “regional escalation.” These diplomatic efforts are not without merit. Above all, the regime’s resilience has proven stronger than American leaders expected. After the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq in the early 2000s, Iran’s mullahs decentralized their defenses, which are now organized on a patchwork basis, granting operational autonomy, including for airstrikes, to 31 regional headquarters of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. "The Iranian regime has been preparing for this war for two decades", recalled Clement Therm, an Iran expert at the Ifri Institute, during a recent roundtable.
For him, the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei "signals the return of the most ideological and extremist wing of the Iranian "deep state". This is the end of the illusion of a Venezuelan-style solution." There is no Gorbachev-like figure in the Islamic Republic who is ready to reform the totalitarian system, nor a conciliatory figure like Delcy Rodriguez in Caracas who has succumbed to US pressure for pragmatic reasons. "Religious dictatorships are not subject to reform", commented a diplomat familiar with the situation. Since the beginning of the war, Iran and Hezbollah have shown that they have no intention of capitulating or retreating, but rather that they intend to involve the entire region in the conflict. "This clarity makes us think that the Islamic Republic can survive this war. If Donald Trump gives up the fight, the regime will prevail and strengthen", emphasizes the French diplomat.
Policy of maneuvering
This scenario is also fueled by Donald Trump's position since the start of the strikes and by the ambiguity of his goals. Dorothea Schmidt, a Middle East specialist at Ifri, speaks of a "policy of maneuvering", oscillating between continuing the war until regime change and quickly exiting the conflict. As John Bolton, Donald Trump’s former national security adviser, has said: “I support regime change in Iran, but I deeply fear that the lack of preparation will prevent that goal from being achieved. The strategy appears to be flawed, particularly in its coordination with the Iranian opposition and its lack of preparation of the American people before the attack.”
Instead of Venezuela, Iran could opt for the North Korean scenario. With the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei, Tehran, like Pyongyang, has become a hereditary dictatorship protected by ideology and repression. The Islamic Republic could also follow North Korea’s nuclear path, removing all restrictions on its program and accelerating the country’s march toward the bomb, the only way to protect itself from a future American attack. “Many believe that only a covert and ultra-rapid reactivation of the nuclear program can ensure the regime’s long-term survival. "The Americans and Israel wanted to hit the mullahs hard enough to force them to abandon their program. We can see the exact opposite of these predictions. And all this is happening at a time when there has been no IAEA supervision since June last year," a diplomat analyzed.
If the 450 kg of enriched uranium - "squirrel nut", as one diplomat called it - that the Iranians are believed to have hidden in deep tunnels and possibly dispersed, are not discovered by Israeli or American commandos, Iran's nuclear march to a bomb will accelerate. Not to mention that this military stockpile could also be used to make dirty bombs. Among the bad news that could come from Iran in the coming weeks and months if the US abandons Iran and the regime remains in power is the resumption of its ballistic missile program, as well as the likely and brutal return of terrorism to Europe. And that’s without taking into account the renewed repression that is likely to be unleashed again against the opposition, which lost more than 30,000 members during the demonstrations in January.
Uncertainties
"For Israel, this was a dream come true: to convince Donald Trump to attack Iran to topple the regime. But today we have to ask ourselves: what did we achieve that we failed to achieve in June?", asked Dani Citrinovich, an expert at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, during a roundtable in Paris organized by the Foundation for Strategic Studies (FRS). Without regime change, he warns, there will be no strategic gain for Israel. "The future could be even worse, because Mojtaba Khamenei will resume the nuclear race, and Donald Trump will not follow the Israelis when they decide to strike again. You can attack their uranium enrichment plants ten times and the Iranians will still have a nuclear capability. This war will not solve our problems,” he argued.
Yet the other scenario that many, including those in the Gulf, hope for—regime collapse—is still on the table in Tel Aviv, perhaps in Washington, and among Iranian opposition figures. “I don’t believe that the Islamic Republic of Iran that Khamenei has built over the past 36 years can exist without him. That doesn’t mean it’s over, but it will be fundamentally transformed,” Heather Williams, a Rand expert, predicted at the FRS roundtable. And it will become more vulnerable to attacks aimed at its overthrow. Some dream of a "great day" when the fall of the Iranian regime and its proxies will free the Middle East from the tentacles of the octopus that have held it since 1979.
And here the supporters of this optimistic scenario have their arguments. With Reza Pahlavi, the son of the deposed Shah, even if he is not universally popular, the opposition for the first time has a possible alternative to the mullahs, ready to commit to their overthrow. During the January uprising, there were cases of desertion and refusal to obey orders in the police and the less ideologically motivated security services. According to an expert on Iran, such brutal attacks on the people have led to the "political suicide" of the mullahs. By attacking their Gulf neighbors, he continues, they are committing "diplomatic suicide". "This makes the survival of the regime difficult in the medium term. We can imagine it becoming a zombie state and heading for economic collapse," says Clement Therm.
As for regime change, he believes there are no historical precedents. "The fact that the project didn't work in Iraq and Afghanistan doesn't mean it won't work in Iran," emphasizes Therm. Historically, the collapse of regimes has often come as a surprise. No one predicted the collapse of the USSR or the fall of Bashar al-Assad in Syria. "The stability of the regime," he continues, "will depend on the duration of the war." And therefore on the will of Donald Trump.
Different scenarios
Between these two scenarios, experts foresee other, more or less chaotic paths. From an American quagmire with troops stationed there, to the resumption of negotiations with a severely weakened regime, or even civil war. This is exactly what Saudi researcher Aziz Algashiyan feared at the Federal Security Society roundtable: "In Saudi Arabia, this war, from which there is no way out, is seen as opening Pandora's box and a harbinger of chaos."
Even in the Middle East, however, "the worst is not always inevitable", hopes Clement Therm. "We cannot rule out a pleasant surprise, because the entire population has risen up against the repressive state." Of course, the fight, if it starts, will be unequal: armed militias will face the population and the people with their bare hands. Will the American and Israeli allies support the Iranian people to the end? "Although Trump has scaled back his ambitions after seeing the resilience of the Iranian political establishment, the goal of regime change has not disappeared," argues Eli Tenebaum, director of the Center for Security Studies at Ifri.
In any case, this new war already signals a major transformation of the Middle East. According to Dorothea Schmidt, the region is experiencing a "historical moment". "September 11, 2001, the Arab Spring, and the period after October 7, 2023 are three moments of great transformation, each accompanied by fantasies of reshaping the region," she analyzes. Can these fantasies become more than just fantasies? The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) notes that the "military trajectory" has been "relatively positive" for the United States and Israel. "The campaign is far from over and it is too early to predict its outcome. To speak of an operational failure is certainly premature," the ISW report says.