China's official goal, since the founding of the People's Republic, has been to establish control over the island of Taiwan. China's increased armament for several years has fueled concerns that a military invasion may be imminent, writes ZDF.
Meanwhile, Australian radio ABC has released information from a secret US intelligence file, according to which China is building a civilian naval fleet capable of helping to militarily take control of Taiwan.
What are the revelations of US intelligence?
Australian radio reported that the information was collected by US intelligence and was intended for the Pentagon. They say that by the end of 2026, China wants to build over 70 large ferries, which will be equipped to be used for military purposes. Each of them could transport tanks and hundreds of soldiers instead of cars and trucks.
Similar Chinese projects have already been reported by the British “Guardian“ - a new type of landing ship over 100 meters long, which is capable of building long pontoon bridges, along which the transported military vehicles can be delivered to practically any part of the coastline. Such platforms for unloading in the event of a sea invasion can also be used to create an improvised port terminal for supply.
Military exercises confirm the plans
Military analyst Klaus Sung told ZDF that the warnings from the United States deserve serious attention. “The intelligence reports sound convincing. The use of such ferries for military purposes is realistic. However, we cannot say at this time to what extent China will actually decide to use civilian ships for military purposes.“
Ferries for civilian purposes have already been used in a number of military exercises in China, the German media explains. In 2019, Chinese state media showed soldiers arriving at a naval base in Hong Kong from a ferry. Exercises in 2020 and 2023 show various armored vehicles being unloaded on ferry ramps. The Chinese media’s showing of such footage should also signal to Taiwan’s allies that their military resistance would be futile.
“China’s military exercises and the footage of ferries in Chinese media send a clear message: we are preparing for an invasion. But that doesn’t mean it will definitely come to that,“ says Sung. “In a scenario where China confronts Taiwan, Beijing would probably easily win a military victory. However, US intervention would lead to huge losses and drastic economic consequences. The aim of all these propaganda messages is to prevent that.“
The use of civilian ships is part of the official strategy
“The military’s use of civilian assets is nothing new – "This happened on a large scale during the Civil War and the Korean War," expert Sung told German public media. "Fishing boats are now being used as a paramilitary fleet in the South China Sea."
In addition to the lower cost of building civilian ships, there are other reasons to rely on civilian vessels: in the event of a confrontation, Western militaries may hesitate to sink them, even though they would be legitimate targets in their military function. In this context, the use of civilian ferries to transfer military units and materials is generally not unusual. NATO also uses ferries to maintain security in the Baltics, ZDF reports.
Do China's preparations reveal when it is preparing to attack?
Can China attack Taiwan in the coming years? China's economy has recently revealed weaknesses, so the imposition of economic sanctions in the event of a Chinese military action against Taiwan will not be easily overcome by Beijing. It is also unclear what impact Europe's focus on the Russian threat will have and how the United States will behave under Trump, the German public media notes.
As Sung points out, before starting a war, China would like to have one hundred percent certainty that it will win. Therefore, the armament will be long-term in any case. “The goal of the Chinese state leadership is to modernize the army by 2035 so that it can carry out a successful invasion. It cannot be expected that they will be able to effectively intimidate America much earlier than that,“ the military analyst notes.
He gives the example of aircraft carriers - an area in which China is seriously lagging behind the US. Weaknesses are also found in terms of personnel and command. “This is due to the fact that the Chinese military has not had any real combat experience for decades.“
Author: Nils Metzger ZDF