During the long weeks of interruption in the dialogue between Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and US special envoy Steve Witkoff, events have occurred that could redirect the trajectory of the negotiations, writes European-based Iranian journalist Amir Taheri in a commentary for the Saudi newspaper “Ash Sharq al-Awsat”, quoted by BTA.
Iran has gone through unprecedented internal turmoil, including nationwide protests crushed by ruthless repression. The US president has abandoned direct military involvement in favor of the rebellious Iranians after threatening to do so. According to the author, on the one hand, Trump does not want to involve the United States in such scenarios, after he began a process of military withdrawal from Iraq and Syria and preferred a supporting political role. On the other hand, his method is rather to secure what he wants in exchange for not doing what will hurt his opponent. The message is “give me what I want and I will not send the boys with the clubs,” explains Taheri.
“The second fact that may change the new round of negotiations is the belated realization by the leadership in Tehran, or at least parts of it, that the Islamic Republic cannot fight on two fronts - internal and external. It is significant that the initiative to resume negotiations came from Tehran, albeit after a series of “consultations“ with Russia and a number of regional countries, and in particular Turkey,” says the analyst.
To the great surprise of some commentators, Washington has agreed to some of Tehran's conditions, he said, a sure sign that Trump still hopes to achieve what seven American presidents have failed to do - persuade Iran to transform itself from a vehicle for exporting revolution into a normal state.
Taheri points out that the new round of negotiations is taking place in a new context, marked by the exclusion of the European Union from a process that began almost two decades ago, when Britain, Germany and France were given a leading role. Their exclusion appeals to Moscow, which can play a more active role in persuading Tehran to be more accommodating, the journalist believes. According to him, Moscow can also help solve the difficult problem of Iran's huge stockpile of enriched uranium by agreeing to its transfer to Russia.
The author does not rule out the possibility that Tehran is trying to buy time in the hope that the midterm elections in the US could stop the wind in Trump's sails, or that the US is trying to buy time in anticipation of the numerous crises that Iran is facing, including the succession of the ayatollah, internal tensions and the difficult economic situation.
According to Taheri, the nuclear issue is a distraction from the essence of the problem - the need for Iran to once again become a normal member of the regional and international community, pursuing the goals of normal states.