Because of its close relations with Israel and the US, the United Arab Emirates has come under Iran's sights. What is Abu Dhabi's plan?
A few days ago, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) repelled another Iranian missile and drone attack, carried out despite the current truce between the US and Iran. The Emirates has increasingly become a target of Iranian attacks - over 2,800 drone and missile strikes have been recorded there since the beginning of the war launched by the US and Israel.
UAE Relations with the US and Israel
In 2020, the US brokered the establishment of diplomatic relations between the UAE and Israel, known as the Abraham Accords. "The UAE's relationship with Israel is one of the key reasons why Iran continues to strike the UAE as a form of punishment", said Michael Stevens, senior security advisor for the Middle East at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a think tank for security and defense analysis. "From Iran's perspective, it looks like this: Israel hit us hard, so we're going to hit Israel's friends," he said.
In response to the Iranian attacks, the UAE has stepped up military and intelligence cooperation with Israel. According to information from the American platform Axios, Israel has sent its "Iron Dome" missile defense system to the UAE for the first time, as well as operational personnel. "The closer the UAE and Israel become, the more reason Iran sees to attack the UAE," Stevens believes. The decades-old disputes over the islands of Abu Musa, Greater and Lesser Tunb - controlled by Iran but for which and the UAE claim - further heightening tensions.
After Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, blocking oil exports to Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar and restricting those of Oman, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, it was Abu Dhabi that called not only for it to be opened but also for more decisive international action. The Emirati authorities have also criticized Tehran more harshly than most other affected Gulf states - such as Saudi Arabia, Oman or Qatar. "It also positions them closer to the US and Israel", Stevens notes.
Cinzia Bianco, an analyst at the European Council on Foreign Relations who is currently in the UAE, believes that Tehran is trying to create enough problems for the UAE to force them to put pressure on US President Donald Trump to end the military campaign. "It's just that Iranian actions pushed them in the opposite direction, so that was a very wrong move "judgement," the expert says.
Meanwhile, the Iranian attacks are taking on an existential dimension for the UAE, Bianco notes. "Emirati officials tell me that Iran is trying to undermine the country's core model, which is built on the idea that the Persian Gulf can remain secure and extremely prosperous despite regional instability," she says.
The UAE's Different Course
In recent years, the UAE has increasingly aligned its foreign policy with plans to diversify beyond oil and become a regional hub for digital infrastructure, tourism, business and investment - a strategy known as UAE 2031. The country has also pursued policies that differ from those of its much larger neighbor, Saudi Arabia. While the UAE and Bahrain have normalized relations with Israel, Saudi Arabia has frozen talks after Hamas terrorist attacks on Israel on Oct. 7. 2023 and the ensuing two-year war in Gaza.
On May 1, the UAE left the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the broader OPEC+ alliance, which remains dominated by Riyadh. Saudi Arabia and the UAE also support opposing sides in a number of conflicts in Africa. "The UAE has become one of the most aggressive external actors in African conflicts," says Wolfram Lacher, senior researcher for Africa and the Middle East at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
In recent years, the country has intervened in Libya and Ethiopia, and is currently most active in Sudan, Somalia and Yemen, he says. "This is essential for the UAE because these corridors provide long-term access to strategic resources and trade routes," says a recent analysis that Lacher co-authored. "Military interventions can be seen as a tool to protect these economic interests."
However, these conflicts rarely involve Emirati soldiers on the ground. "A defining feature of the UAE's involvement in them is the limited deployment of its own military forces and the projection of influence through local partners, often non-state armed forces such as those of Khalifa Haftar in Libya and the leader of the Sudanese "Rapid Reaction Forces" Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo," Laher said.
The expert also notes that the UAE is believed to be financing and providing military equipment to foreign fighters and mercenaries, including Sudanese fighters in Libya and Colombian mercenaries in Sudan. The Emirati authorities have repeatedly denied involvement in such activities. "But the evidence is strong," Laher noted.