Russian grain exporters are starting to redirect increasing quantities to Baltic Sea ports, including terminals in Baltic states, after Ukrainian drone attacks disrupted trade through the Black and Azov Seas, traders and analysts told "Reuters".
Russia and Ukraine have stepped up strikes on export terminals and ships carrying grain in the Black Sea in recent weeks, leading to the most serious disruptions to trade in the region since the start of the war more than four years ago.
In the last export season from July 2025 to June 2026, Russia exported 46.3 million tons through the ports of the Black and Azov Seas grain, or about 90% of all Russian seaborne grain exports. For comparison, only about 1 million tons have passed through Russian ports on the Baltic Sea.
However, interest in the northern route is now growing sharply. According to a source in the sector, requests for rail grain transportation to Russian Baltic ports this season have reached 5 million tons as of August 18, with the majority of the quantities to be delivered in August and September.
For comparison, requests for transportation to the Black Sea ports of Novorossiysk and Tuapse were for about 6 million tons.
Russian companies are also increasingly actively exploring the possibilities of using ports in the Baltic states, especially in Latvia, which is a member of the European Union and NATO.
Despite the greatly deteriorated relations between Moscow and the Baltic countries, Russian grain cargoes continue to pass through their ports. Last season, their volume was about 1 million tons compared to 2.5 million tons two years earlier.
"The Baltic region, the northwest, is now the main resource," said Andrey Sizov, head of the consulting company "SovEcon".
According to him, a sharp increase in deliveries can be observed as early as September, both through Russian ports on the Baltic Sea and through terminals in the Baltic states.
The chairman of the Russian Grain Union, Arkady Zlochevsky, predicts that exports of Russian grain through the Baltic states could reach between 5 and 6 million tons this season. If Estonian ports are also used, he says the amount could potentially reach as much as 10 million tons.
Sizov is more cautious and estimates possible exports through the ports of the Baltic states at between 200,000 and 400,000 tons per month. This would still be roughly twice the capacity he expects to be used through the Russian Baltic terminals.
The total grain processing capacity in the ports of the three Baltic states exceeds 18 million tons per year. However, this capacity also handles grain from other European countries and cannot be used entirely for Russian cargo.
In the past, the Baltic states were important transit routes for Russian oil and fertilizer exports. As relations deteriorated, Moscow began to rapidly develop its own port infrastructure.
After Russia became one of the largest players in the global agricultural market and the largest exporter of wheat, specialized grain terminals were built in Vysotsk and Ust Luga. Grain can also be exported via St. Petersburg and Kaliningrad.
The total capacity of Russia's Baltic Sea ports is estimated at up to 7 million tons of grain per year.
Even after their expansion, however, the northern routes cannot fully replace the ports of the Black and Azov Seas.
Zlochevsky estimates that at best all other Russian ports, together with land routes, can handle only about half of the quantities normally exported via the Black and Azov Seas.
The problems with the southern routes are already putting pressure on the Russian grain sector. The large harvest and the difficulties in exporting are creating a surplus on the domestic market and pushing down prices, while the government is considering subsidizing rail transport and other measures to find alternative export corridors.