The Kremlin hopes that Ukraine will tire out of the war sooner than Russia, but the influence of Western countries can significantly change the situation. This is stated in the report of analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) dated June 7, Radio NV reports, quoted by FOKUS.
According to them, even if the West increases economic pressure on Moscow, this step in itself is more of a political signal than a tool capable of forcing Russian President Vladimir Putin to agree to negotiations or reconsider his vision of “victory“.
Analysts believe that further military support for Ukraine by the West is crucial for pressure on Russia. The report notes that Putin still believes in victory, counting on the Russian army to be able to advance longer than Ukrainian forces can defend themselves, and longer than Western countries can support Kiev.
The ISW emphasizes that Putin will no longer seriously consider the possibility of peace negotiations with the United States and Ukraine. According to analysts, in order to achieve a just peace in Ukraine that is acceptable to the United States, Russia must suffer significant losses on the front or a serious defeat.
The ISW report emphasizes that US military support for Ukraine must continue, since it is Russia's losses on the battlefield that weaken its army, economy, and human resources.
Analysts emphasize that only the United States is able to provide Ukraine with weapons in sufficient quantities, and it is such support that allows Ukrainian defenders to restrain Russia's offensive and inflict even greater losses on it.
A further increase in losses among the Russian military, especially if they do not lead to noticeable territorial gains, could threaten Putin's ability to maintain a balance between war costs and socio-economic needs, while maintaining public support in the country, writes ISW.
On June 6, ISW analysts commented that "The Kremlin remains uninterested in bona fide peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, but the Russian army continues to suffer disproportionately high casualties on the battlefield".
ISW analysts draw attention to data that Russian troops are losing an average of 1,140 of their soldiers per day, and therefore are suffering disproportionately high losses of personnel in order to achieve insignificant territorial gains. These are data that were disclosed on June 5 by the "ArmiyaInform" agency, which cited an unnamed senior NATO official in Brussels.