The interior ministers of the European Union are meeting today at an extraordinary video conference meeting due to the unprecedented migrant breakthrough in the Spanish enclave of Ceuta. After between 60 and 70 thousand people stormed the border in a matter of days, concerns are growing in Europe as to whether this is a spontaneous migrant wave or a coordinated hybrid attack, bTV comments.
According to the expert from the Center for the Study of Democracy Tihomir Bezlov, what happened is the result of the coincidence of multiple factors, and not a single cause.
According to Bezlov, Spain is already diverging from the political direction of most European countries.
„Spain is quite different from the general wave of right-wing turn in Western Europe. Pedro Sanchez has a fairly open policy. There is an ideology that Spain must accept migrants to maintain its economy. This is one of the main pillars of the left-wing government,“ he explained.
According to him, it is this policy that has made Spain an object of criticism.
“Sánchez has long become a problem for Europe. You have also seen the quick, sharp reaction of Italy and Denmark. Europe has long moved to the right and towards closing its borders,“ Bezlov pointed out.
According to him, there are many hypotheses about the crisis, noting that the analyses show many coincidences of different factors. He also drew attention to the scale of the crisis.
“We saw between 60 and 70 thousand people crowding into an enclave with a population of about 83-85 thousand people“, the expert said.
According to Bezlov, among the reasons are both the decision of the Spanish government to register a large number of migrants working illegally, and a decision of the Supreme Court of Spain.
“The forecast was for about 500 thousand people, but it turned out that almost 1.2 million had submitted applications“, he pointed out, and according to him this sent a strong signal to people who want to reach Spain.
“The right says: “In this way, you are making another amnesty and creating the feeling that in Spain anyone can legalize themselves“, he said.
An additional factor is the decision of The Supreme Court.
„If you enter by sea, they cannot send you back. That is why we have seen people using belts and boats to cross the water“, explained Bezlov.
Regarding the question of whether such pressure could be transferred to the external borders of Schengen, including Bulgaria, Bezlov explained that in his opinion the immediate risk for Bulgaria is not a mass breakthrough across the border, but the possibility that other European countries will start returning migrants registered in our country.
„Our big risk is that these people may start sending them back to us“, he warned, recalling that this was one of the main concerns during the negotiations for Bulgaria's accession to Schengen.
„Fortunately, we do not have any mass returns. But this is the risk for us“, he said.
According to him, currently the migration pressure on Bulgaria is significantly lower.
„There is a very sharp decline in the migrant wave. So far, there are somewhere around 1,300 people. Compare 18 thousand with 1,300. Of these, somewhere around 700 have been returned“, Bezlov pointed out.
The expert recalled that Bulgaria has already experienced similar pressure.
„We had such a problem in 2015-2016, when Turkey tried to pursue a similar policy of pressure. Then there was this idea that they might start letting in migrants. Fortunately, we have quite good cooperation with Turkey, which has improved a lot in the last 2-3 years, it can be said that Turkey has radically changed its policy of exporting migrants, which it had during the first wave,“, he explained.
According to him, the reason is the domestic political situation in Turkey.
“Erdogan almost lost the elections precisely because there were about 10 million migrants in Turkey. The main criticism of the opposition was precisely this flooding of the country with migrants,“, Bezlov pointed out.
According to the expert, European countries are already taking specific measures.
“The big problem of the European Union is that it cannot deport these people who are residing illegally, because the countries from which they come must accept them back. One of the most brutal methods that can be introduced is to create centers in third countries, which are paid for,“, Bezlov emphasized.
According to the expert, the migration policy of the European Union is entering a new stage.
“Europe has moved strongly to the right precisely because of all these social problems,“, he said.
“It was expected that the deteriorating demographics of Europe would be compensated by importing people. But it turned out that the costs for them were greater than their contribution to the gross domestic product. This turned out to be a very difficult ideological clash. You can see the results of the elections - right-wing parties are winning massively in the European Union,” said Bezlov.