The presidential elections are shaping up to be the big political event this fall, but a little more than a month before the vote, the main political forces have not yet finally clarified their candidates and candidate-presidential pairs. Potential names for the post are already emerging in the political conversation. However, according to analysts, the more important question is not only who will run, but which political forces will manage to build a broad coalition of support around their candidates.
“The state of our political party system is like this - in a loose state, in crisis, in unclear coalitions. After these five crisis years, many elections, everything is fragmented“. He stated this in “Hello, Bulgaria” political scientist Prof. Maria Pirgova.
According to her, Iliana Yotova's candidacy has serious prerequisites for success. She has nearly ten years of experience as vice president and, according to the analysis, should not be perceived solely as a representative of a certain political formation. “I wouldn't even say that she would simply be a representative of Radev or of “Progressive Bulgaria“. On the contrary, she would be an independent president“, she said.
According to her, however, the choice of vice president may prove to be particularly important for Yotova. Pirgova believes that the candidate-presidential pair should be broad enough in terms of political and public representation. In her words, a suitable choice would be someone with a more patriotic and nationally oriented position, who would complement Yotova's European profile.
The other intrigue surrounding the vote, according to analysts, is around the candidacy of Andrey Gyurov. He has not yet announced that he will run for office, and his potential support from the center-right parties remains unclear. "He is an interesting candidate who is consensual, and we see that he is a man of action. He performed quite well in the three months as acting prime minister," said PR expert Georgi Kurtev.
According to him, however, the big problem facing Gyurov is the fragmentation of the right-wing political spectrum. "Mr. Gyurov's big drama is that he has to unite these people under one denominator, because elections are won only with strong party support," he commented.
According to the analyst, the role of party structures should not be underestimated, especially in smaller settlements. In this situation, GERB's position is particularly complicated. The party must decide whether to nominate its own candidate, support another candidate, or stay away until the second round.
According to Pirgova, GERB is taking a serious risk if it does not participate with its own candidate. “I think that GERB will lose if it does not run in the elections and if it supports another candidate. They must have their own candidate and fight as hard as they can to identify the parameters of their own party at the moment“, she said.
“It is not only important to reach the second round. What is important is what happens after it“, Kurtev emphasized.
The other potential factor in the presidential race is “Vazrazhdane“ and the possible participation of Petar Volgin. According to Pirgova, it is this clash that could create a more serious intrigue around Iliyana Yotova. According to her, if Volgin is the candidate, the opposition between Yotova's pro-European position and Volgin's more pro-Russian orientation could become one of the main focuses of the campaign.
„I expect intrigue with Yotova - „Vazrazhdane“. Because Yotova - Gyurov has no intrigue. It will be very difficult there“, Pirgova predicts.
The two experts also commented on the issue of the emergence of new political projects around candidates Ivan Hristanov, Nikolay Nenchev, Georgi Dimov and Radostin Vassilev and other public figures. According to them, some of them will probably use the presidential campaign as a basis for building future political formations.