The turnout in the second round of the presidential elections could drop below 2 million people. This is predicted by the sociologist from “Trend“ Dimitar Ganev, according to whom, if the current attitudes are maintained, the vote will reach a runoff.
The survey was commissioned by the newspaper “24 Chasa“ and was conducted among 1,003 adult citizens in the period from September 26 to October 2 through face-to-face interviews.
About 3.3 million votes are needed for the first round
Ganev recalled that according to the Constitution, the president is elected in the first round with more than half of the actual votes, if more than half of the voters on the list participated in the vote. With an expected list of about 6.6 million people, this means the participation of approximately 3.3 million voters.
According to him, a drop in turnout is traditionally observed in a runoff. Some voters refuse to vote when the candidate they supported does not reach the second round and they do not see their representative in the race.
A runoff between Yotova and Gyurov is expected
Dimitar Ganev believes that the distribution of support in the current pre-election situation gives reason to expect a second round between Iliyana Yotova and Andrey Gyurov.
As an argument, the sociologist points to the strong mobilization of supporters of “We continue the change“ and “Democratic Bulgaria“. According to him, this electorate has shown relatively high loyalty to the formations and candidates they have nominated in recent years.
Attitudes towards a parliamentary vote were also measured
The survey also includes voters' attitudes in the event of possible parliamentary elections. According to Ganev, the overall structure of support remains relatively similar to that of the parliamentary vote on April 19, but there have been changes.
He reports a slight erosion in support for “Progressive Bulgaria“ by a few percentage points within six months. Another difference is that “We Continue the Change“ and “Democratic Bulgaria“ are now measured as two separate political formations.
Sources: nova.bg