How will the US presidential campaign play out in the remaining months until November after witnessing the assassination of Donald Trump. Will the Democrats dare to replace Biden… Professor Ivan Dinev Ivanov, who teaches at the Faculty of Public and International Relations at the University of Cincinnati in the USA, spoke to FAKTI on the subject.
- Prof. Ivanov, the presidential candidate Donald Trump survived an assassination attempt. What is the resonance of this in the US. How did Americans take this?
- The assassination attempt against the presidential candidate Trump can be compared to the peak of political polarization in the USA for the last 7-8 years. An attack on an official political figure, on a US presidential candidate, has not happened since the 1980s. This act affected people in the US and polarization took a back seat. A tone was set of moderation, of modesty, of a recognition that indeed excessive opposition between the two political camps was not a good thing. Also, the assassination attempt against Trump coincided with the Republican convention. Basically, their message from each such conference is to unite behind one candidate from their political party. Of course, the assassination attempt on Trump was an additional stimulus that mobilized both Republicans and society as a whole. But he particularly influenced swing voters.
- Trump is active, works and does not stop his appearances. How much does Biden lead after the attack?
- Until a month ago, the difference between Trump and Biden was about 1-2%. At certain times, Trump was leading, then he was giving way to Biden. In recent studies – before the attack, according to “Fox News” Trump led 48 to 47, according to NBC Biden led 45 to 43 - they gave him a bigger advantage, according to CBS News Trump led 50 to 48. It is normal to expect that the assassination will have the effect of uniting the nation, that it will increased support in favor of Trump by several percentage points. Another fact is that we don't see much of a shift in support for Trump, which shows that American society remains highly polarized.
- “Trump is Hitler!“ We heard this years ago from JD Vance, and now he has accepted to be promoted to Vice President. What metamorphosis did Vance experience?
- In recent years, it is not only Vance, but a whole galaxy of Republican politicians and leaders who have undergone a similar metamorphosis. After criticizing Trump years ago, they now stood behind his candidacy and voiced their unconditional support during the Republican convention. Trump has also been very divisive as president. Over the past 7-8 years, Trump has attacked many Republicans, including their wives – I mean people like Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Nikki Haley, etc. Now these Republicans have thrown their full support behind Trump, after literally a few months ago some of them were waging a vicious battle with him. And as for the “effect” Vance, he is directly related to Trump. Trump has now managed to attract and consolidate the support of a category of disenfranchised people, these are Americans with lower incomes, lower education, usually white people from the Midwest, and not only, in a word, the working class in American society. They are often called “hillbilites“ (or the so-called “hillbillies”). JD Vance is the author of the book that praises “hillbillies” (or “Hillbilly Elegy”). And it was these more disenfranchised, poorer people who stood up and gave almost unreserved support to Trump. Vance got Trump's endorsement for his Ohio senatorial bid two years ago, and that's how he was elected to the US Senate. JD Vance can't be as influential as President Trump because he doesn't have the support that Trump has, but it's his relationship with Trump that allowed him to get the VP nomination.
- The Republicans seem united, and in the Democratic camp they are thinking about how to replace Biden. And there is not much time until November…
- Literally until a month ago, until before the first debate, the campaign seemed equally strong or weak, both for Biden and for Trump - it depends on how we look at it. Biden had even started to gain some momentum, but after the botched first debate between the two, and the subsequent assassination attempt, we now have a situation where the Democrats don't have many winning moves. Yes, they are indeed looking at the possibility of replacing Biden, but there is a very strong argument against it. It's the fact that Biden received 87% of the vote of all Democrats in the Democratic internal election process. How do you remove a person after receiving such powerful support? At the same time at the moment
only about 1/3 of Democrats are dissatisfied with Biden's re-election bid.
The other option was for Biden to forgo a second term. When a sitting US president has the opportunity to run for re-election and he doesn't, it creates a problem in terms of both the history and the psychology of the political process in the United States. Whoever is nominated to replace Biden will have the much more difficult task of running for the presidency. The much easier task for Democrats is to continue betting on Biden to lead the country despite his age, despite his cognitive limitations. People saw these issues at the debate. His age limitations and Biden's ability to lead the country are already being used not only by Republicans, but also by his opponents within the Democrats. Increasingly, Democratic donors, big-money donors, are saying they will withhold funding if Biden continues to campaign. Democrats are in a tough spot. On the one hand, if they withdraw their support and replace Biden with another candidate who has no legitimacy, it would be very difficult for them to win the election in November. If they continue with Biden's candidacy, he is already vulnerable enough on his own.
- And with the Republicans, what has changed?
- With the Republicans, things have changed 180 degrees. The Trump assassination attempt consolidated their voters tremendously. Until just a month ago, the Republican Party was sharply divided between Trumpists and those who said “never with Trump.” Trumpists had the upper hand in the party, but now Trump's opponents have been completely marginalized. The clear message from the Republican convention is that the entire party is behind Trump. The fact that there was an assassination created a sense of threat in American society, and now people are looking for “unity under the flag.“ In this case, the flag is Trump – the former president. Naturally, he draws sympathy not only from Republicans who have had doubts, but also from wavering, from centrists, from many moderates who have had some doubts about Trump's candidacy, given his polarizing personality. Now we expect Trump - who has been a divisive figure for the last eight years - to use this attack against him in a speech when his presidential nomination is announced and
to send a message of unifying the nation around his candidacy.
Thus, literally in one month, the political picture in the USA turned around. Biden, who was the candidate associated with a message of unity and a symbol of unification of the various ethnic and even religious groups among Americans, is now becoming a polarizing figure because of his age and his ability to serve as president. And on the other side we see a Trump who was extremely accused of being divisive, now - because he was the victim of an assassination attempt – became a unifier of American society. This, to some extent, is a paradox that will perhaps change the chances of both candidates in the remaining few months.