Experts in political science discussed the current topics related to the upcoming elections on the air of Bulgaria ON AIR television. They analyzed the possible coalitions, the chances of the different formations to enter the next parliament and the expectations for forming a regular government.
Emil Sokolov, a political scientist, commented on the tactics of some political leaders before the elections: "It would be fair for the politicians to say before the elections with whom they would form a coalition, would they do it - no." He noted Boyko Borisov's ability to create the impression of almost reached agreements that will be finalized after the elections.
Sokolov expressed the opinion that there is a possibility of a coalition between GERB and Delyan Peevski's faction, if it succeeds in entering the parliament, as well as with "There is such a people" (ITN). However, he stressed that at this stage it is difficult to predict whether there will be a regular government.
Regarding the chances of the two factions of the Movement for Rights and Freedoms (DPS) to cross the 4 percent barrier, political scientist Georgi Kiryakov indicated that this will depend on the mobilization of the electorate. According to him, the ethnic factor will play a leading role.
Kiryakov analyzes the situation surrounding Peevski's group: "For Peevski's camp, the problem is that it will not be recognized by the Bulgarian Turks. The brand doesn't matter, the faces matter." He added that Ahmed Dogan's participation in the campaign and as a list leader could have a positive effect on the DPS result.
Experts have united around the opinion that the corporate vote will be of key importance for DPS entering the next National Assembly. Emil Sokolov commented: "The corporate incentive is the strongest. Pazarlak will shine, we will see the corporate vote in its purest form."
Regarding the possible coalitions in the 51st National Assembly, Kiryakov noted that the larger number of parties in the parliament would make it difficult to form a regular government. He emphasized that only "We continue the change - Democratic Bulgaria" (PP-DB) remain firm in their pro-democracy position.
Sokolov added to the analysis by pointing out that personal enmities in ITN affect their priorities, while PP-DB would have a hard time coalition with GERB or DPS.
Experts also discussed the chances of the left unification. Kiryakov expressed concerns that some of the traditional supporters of the Bulgarian Socialist Party (BSP) may not vote because of disagreement with the current leadership. This could lead to the risk that the united left will not cross the 4 percent barrier.