How many votes secure one parliamentary seat? The answer to this question lies in the number of those who voted and, more precisely, in the number of those who supported the parties that managed to cross the 4% barrier to enter parliament.
In the last elections in June, just over 2,260,000 Bulgarian citizens went to the polls, bTV recalls.
In view of the downward trend of voter turnout in the last two years, we will make a calculation with a forecast of 2 million voters in the upcoming vote.
Thus, the calculation shows that approximately 7,500 cast ballots are needed for one deputy seat in the 51st National Assembly.
How can voter turnout change this number?
Approximately 2 million Bulgarians to go to the polls on October 27 - this number is the basis of our calculations with mathematician Prof. Mihail Konstantinov.
„From there, 4% is more or less 80,000 votes. That is, 80,000 votes get a party into the parliament, and it will already win 10 or more seats there”, explained the mathematician.
The chosen number is not accidental, as sociologists predict about the same or even slightly lower voter turnout than the vote in June.
„Two trends will have an impact. I think there are still people who are willing to change their passive behavior that we saw in June. On the other hand, however, those who do not find a reason to go to the polls on election day, because they are endlessly disappointed with the political elite, are probably also increasing, commented the sociologist from “Market LINKS” Dobromir Zhivkov.
The tendency that we vote less is also proven by a reference to the activity of the last six parliamentary elections - all of them early and within a period of three years.
Thus, in April 2021, the turnout is over 50% of those entitled to vote. The next election saw a drop to just over 34% on June 9 this year.
„If we vote more people, the weight of the bought vote will decrease. If a party has the money to buy 80,000 votes, with the current voter turnout, it will probably get a 10-member group into the parliament, but if they vote more - 80,000, it won't be enough, explained Prof. Mihail Konstantinov.
Buying and selling votes is a crime, the official reminded.