71% of the Bulgarians who took part in a survey by "Exakta" do not believe that it is possible for our country to have a good and stable management. 29% of those interviewed are optimists, informs the BNR. GERB-SDS and PP-DB voters more often assume that good governance is possible. Such an answer expresses expectations that their parties participate in the governance of the country.
The voters of "Vazrazhdane" are strongly skeptical about the possibility of good and stable governance of the country. (three-fourths of them), as well as supporters of MECH and "Majesty". 42% of those who declared a definite intention to vote on October 27, indicated that it is possible that after the elections our country will have a good and stable government. The majority of those who firmly decided not to vote reject the possibility of good and stable governance in our country after the elections.
According to the data of "Exacta", 7 parties find a place in the next composition of the parliament. Three smaller formations, which remain below the 4 percent barrier, are also fighting for participation in the 51st National Assembly. The closest to four percent is PP "MECH".
GERB will undoubtedly win the upcoming election race. It is clear from the research that there is no social group or stratum in which GERD does not receive the first result.
Given the contested race for second place between the PP-DB coalition and "Vazrazhdane", survey data shows that "Vazrazhdane" have more support than PP-DB among men and among the oldest voters, and PP-DB have better positions than "Vazrazhdane" among young and educated Bulgarians, as well as among those living in larger settlements – capital and cities-district centers.
It is difficult to predict how the race between APS and DPS will end on election day - "A new beginning," sociologists comment. In the course of the campaign, "DPS-New Beginning" has managed to melt away part of the lead of Ahmed Dogan's APS.
"BSP - United Left" appears in a format that aims to unite left-wing voters. It remains to be seen how this formation will be accepted and whether it will be able to attract a peripheral vote, comments from "Exakta".
PP MECH, "Blue Bulgaria" and PP "Majesty" have electoral shares that place them immediately behind the formations that are highly likely to enter the next parliament. PP "SWORD" and "Blue Bulgaria" have stronger electoral cores than PP "Greatness".
The protest vote is most strongly represented by non-voting Bulgarians, whose share is growing. There is no party electorate that in recent years has not periodically replenished /albeit to varying degrees/ the "army" of non-voters in our country, sociologists comment.
At the same time, the number of people who go to the polls to vote with the option "I do not support anyone" is decreasing.
The national study of "Exacta Research Group" was conducted in the period from October 19 to 22, 2024. 1,050 adult Bulgarians were interviewed in 71 settlements of the country. A stratified two-stage sample was used with a quota based on basic socio-demographic characteristics. The registration method is a direct semi-standardized “face-to-face” interview. The maximum permissible error for the 50% relative shares is +/- 3%. The research was carried out with the funds of "Exacta Research Group" as part of the agency's research program.