Demographic changes in Bulgaria pose a serious risk to economic growth and the sustainability of social systems. The conclusions are from an analysis of the Council for Economic Analysis of the Council of Ministers.
According to him – Bulgaria is among the countries with the most unfavorable population structure and great pressure on the working people – currently, 100 of them practically support 60 people of disabled age. This indicator is expected to worsen.
And more – Bulgaria has a high mortality rate and the lowest life expectancy in Europe - an average of just over 74 years, compared to over 80 for the European Union. All this directly affects the size of the workforce.
The analysis shows that after 2009, demography has a negative effect on gross domestic product (GDP) growth, which is measured as 0.9 percentage points per year. This represents about 45% of the average annual GDP growth rate for the period 2010-2021.
As the main reasons for this, the analysis considers emigration and changes in the structure of the population. Without a change in economic conditions and policies, there is a risk that this negative effect will continue, and after 2035 it will even intensify due to accelerated population aging, report the authors of the report.