Should we expect a resolution to the war in Ukraine soon and will the map of the world be redrawn… Ivan Anchev, co-chair of the Atlantic Council of Bulgaria, speaks to FACT.
- Mr. Anchev, the question is not whether, but how Ukraine will be divided. Is that what US President Donald Trump told us a few days ago?
- Ukraine will not be divided in the international legal sense, because Ukraine is a sovereign state, with a single and indivisible territory, including the Crimean peninsula. No matter what demarcation lines the conflict is frozen along, the remaining territories under Russian control will not be recognized by the international community. They may be recognized by countries like North Korea and Iran, which are Russia's natural allies today, but I don't think that this will be done by, say, China. After the cessation of hostilities, the territories that will remain under Russian rule will be an excellent example of the “Russian world” - poverty, languor and lack of social and economic prospects, an excellent counterpoint to the rapidly developing European Ukraine that I am convinced we will see in the coming years.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited Donald Trump in Washington, but was not greeted at the airport. What is Trump showing him with this?
- Look, there is no such usual practice in American state protocol. During the time that I was on diplomatic duty at our embassy in Washington, there were two visits by Bulgarian presidents (Parvanov and Plevneliev) and two visits by prime ministers (Stanishev and Borisov). During all these visits, our statesmen, as well as all other foreign leaders, landed at the Andrews Air Force Base near Washington, in the state of Maryland.
After that, the official welcome by the American president took place at the entrance to the White House, regardless of whether it was from the north side, from Pennsylvania Avenue, or from the South Lawn.
Putin's welcome in Alaska was different because he was not in Washington and because that's how President Trump saw things, from his point of view at the time - the passing planes, the narrow red carpet, etc. But I am absolutely sure that if the meeting with Trump - Putin had been in Washington. Trump would not have met him at the airport.
- What can Ukraine count on from the US now? They wanted “Tomahawk“ missiles, but they didn't get them…
- Ukraine will continue to rely on the American intelligence it receives. They are crucial to Ukrainian successes. Of course, it will also continue to rely on American military supplies – regardless of who pays for them, they are vital, especially in the area of air and missile defense. And last but not least, we should note that the sanctions that Trump imposed on “Rosneft“ and “Lukoil“ have a much greater impact on Russia than a hundred or even a thousand strikes with “Tomahawk“.
- Donald Trump boasts that he spoke to Russian President Vladimir Putin on the phone, but did anything come of it…
- As we can see – nothing concrete came of it. The war continues at the same pace as it did nine months ago, when President Trump came to power for the second time. The trust between the two is severely shaken, and Donald Trump has finally realized that Putin is trying to lead him by the nose - something that the American president refused to understand for 4 years during his previous term and now nine months into his second term. It is as if Trump has finally understood the truth as we all saw it from the sidelines. But it would be too hasty and deeply wrong if we start building our analyses from here on along the axis of "antagonism between Putin and Trump". All the current actions of the American president, including the sanctions against "Rosneft" and "Lukoil", are not dictated by any deep internal political convictions of his, but by his strong desire to force the other side to conclude the deal that he (Trump) wants. I do not rule out seeing similar forceful actions by Trump in relation to Ukraine. Neither side is protected from a sudden show of firmness on the part of Donald Trump. So it is too early, if such a time ever comes, for fanfares of victory.
- In general, from the outside it seems that Russia is achieving what it needs, that one could even say that the US is helping. Is that so …
- I don't think Russia is achieving what it wants. Quite the opposite. Of all these nearly four years, minus a few months, of active military operations, Russia is currently in the most difficult situation for it: almost frozen fronts with huge human losses and the lack of any tactical, let alone strategic military initiative, strong and very painful consequences for the Russian economy from European and American sanctions, and an even more painful feeling of the coming social catastrophe, which is inevitable. The lack of fuel at gas stations in Russia is only the visible harbinger of this catastrophe. The Russian economy is completely on war tracks, with interest rates unthinkable in a normal economic environment. An increase in VAT from 20% to 22% is also being considered in order to finance the war. Russia is on the verge of economic collapse, which will happen the moment the war stops and this entire military-industrial complex stops working. There will be a total and gigantic economic collapse. Believe me, I do not exclude the possibility that 30 years later we will again witness Operation “Provide Hope” and that Russia will receive American chicken legs to feed its population, which has fallen into nothingness for the fourth time, and which is now wildly applauding the war against Ukraine. Victory-craze, you know what the current state of Russian society is called, almost without exception in its unanimity. When these 1 million armed men freezing in the trenches, for whom human life has long ceased to matter, return to their homelands from the front, then the victory-craze will be replaced by pogroms similar to those of Emelyan Pugachev or the soldiers' riots preceding February 1917.
- Moscow is watching with satisfaction the events in the Middle East – the Israel – “Hamas” conflict , because that's how the Ukrainian topic left the news broadcasts. And the war continues…
- Immediately after the disgusting attack of October 7, 2023, I said that the biggest winner from this criminal and criminal act in essence is the Kremlin. Because it took its eyes off the no less savage actions in Bucha and everywhere else where a Russian soldier had set foot in Ukraine. Secondly - the bifurcation of American military aid at that moment, now also to Israel, as a victim of aggression, was also in favor of Moscow. It is very important to recall that the genesis of Islamic terrorism has Moscow, or rather KGB roots. Yes, Islamic radicalism originates from Hassan al-Banna and the “Muslim Brotherhood“ in Egypt in 1924, but it was instrumentalized in favor of the USSR's foreign policy, namely by the KGB during the Andropov era, through organizations such as the “Islamic Jihad“, for example. And let's not forget that it was the Egyptian branch of the “Islamic Jihad“ that killed the Egyptian president Anwar Sadat, who was so inconvenient for the USSR. So, when talking about Islamic terrorism, one should never forget that it originated in the laboratories of the “Lubyanka“.
- The US provides weapons, but wants the EU to pay for them. Are we stupid in Europe…
- No, I do not consider European participation in financing the armament of Ukraine as “stupidity“. On the contrary, I would define it as “foresight“ at the risk of sounding cynical to some. The Ukrainian people have the misfortune of being a neighbor of an aggressive empire and the even greater misfortune of becoming the object of aggression by this empire. But the Ukrainian people should be proud of what they have done so far, including the fact that they are protecting the whole of Europe from a highly aggressive state. Ukraine is also a victim of European negligence, especially during the reign of Mrs. Merkel in Germany, when the Europeans convinced the Ukrainians not to do anything so as not to irritate the aggressor. I am convinced that Angela Merkel will answer to history for this deeply short-sighted policy of hers. So financing the arms supply to Ukraine from the EU is the least we can do not only for the Ukrainian people, but also for ourselves, for our children.
- Drones in Poland, masked Russian soldiers on the border with Estonia. Is Moscow testing NATO?
- Yes, Russia is testing NATO, but with two different goals: firstly - checking the readiness of NATO forces and secondly, for its own domestic political (Russian) goals, because the thirst for victory must be constantly nurtured.
Otherwise, society will fall into an ideological vacuum, which will be filled by someone new, more vocal, but no less dangerous like Prigozhin.
Each of us must realize that until Russia is brought to its knees and surrounded by three rows of barbed wire, there will be no peace in Europe. But alas, the last Putin admirer will die not in Russia, but in Bulgaria. If you will allow me such a reference to a quote by Dimitar Talev.