Donald Trump has repeatedly stated that he is seriously considering withdrawing the US from NATO. But can he do it? Here are the facts:
Whenever the end of the war in Iran comes, it will open a new very serious topic for the US and Europe, which Donald Trump has already put in focus - the future of his country's membership in NATO.
Can Trump be stopped
Trump has repeatedly stated that he is seriously considering withdrawing the US from the military alliance, which he described as a "paper tiger". But can it do it?
In 2023, Congress passed a law that would require a two-thirds majority in the Senate to do so. Republicans do not have that majority, and current Secretary of State Marco Rubio was among the sponsors of the law.
However, Rubio has also spoken today about the US needing to rethink its "relationship with NATO." And Donald Trump has already shown that he can skirt the rules. The intervention in Iran is a case in point - he launched it without receiving congressional approval, as required by the War Powers Act of 1973.
If Trump does attempt to withdraw the United States from NATO without congressional approval, the matter will likely go to court.
But even if he does not initiate a procedure to withdraw the United States from NATO, the American president could seriously damage the military alliance, notes "Politico" in this regard.
Crash of Trust
Trump's rhetoric towards NATO is anything but friendly. He recently described the Alliance as a "book tiger" and emphasized that even Putin knew this. Over the years, Trump has imposed a dichotomy in talking about NATO - "us" and "you", i.e. the United States and all the other countries that are part of the organization. The US president threatened to allow "Russia to do whatever it wants" with countries that do not increase their defense spending, and sharply attacked Spain, which was the first to refuse to provide its air bases for strikes against Iran. Such statements "undermine the credibility of NATO's defensive and deterrent role", Gerlinde Niehus, who worked for NATO for many years, told "Politico".
Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed doubts that other countries would defend the US if necessary, and his refusal to participate in the conflict with Iran has further strengthened these attacks. At the same time, the United States remains the only country in the world in whose support Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty has been activated - NATO countries have been actively supporting the American offensive in Afghanistan for years.
Washington can block NATO's work
Washington's representatives are able to seriously sabotage the work of NATO, where decisions are made unanimously. This is already happening by blocking reports on topics such as climate change and security, sources reveal to "Politico".
The Americans may refuse to pay their annual contributions, which represent about 15% of the Alliance's budget. And this would seriously burden European countries and Canada.
Withdrawal of US troops from Europe
The military alliance was created in 1949 with two main goals - deterring the Soviet Union and guaranteeing common defense in the event of a major threat, similar to that from Nazi Germany.
To this end, by 2026, over 80,000 US soldiers will be stationed in more than 30 bases on the Old Continent. If the US begins to violate its commitments under the treaty and withdraw its soldiers from Europe, the European allies will have to fill the gaps. However, this is unlikely - US bases are needed by Washington for operations such as the one in Iran, in which the role of the Ramstein base located in Germany, for example, is key.
But the most important thing for Europe remains the nuclear umbrella that the US has spread over the Old Continent. In recent months, however, there has been active talk of providing a common European nuclear defense by France and the United Kingdom.
Soft withdrawal from the Alliance
Trump could suspend Washington's commitment without formally withdrawing his country from NATO. The United States could boycott NATO meetings or withdraw its delegation, as well as not participate in the four-year military planning. In this regard, a brief historical reference: in 1966, French President Charles de Gaulle left NATO's integrated command, as did Greece briefly in 1974.
In practice, however, in the case of the United States, this would devastate the Alliance, notes Ed Arnold, a military expert who has also worked for the organization, to "Politico". Given Washington's relatively central role, this would likely mean withdrawing all American troops from NATO.
The last option - a complete withdrawal of the United States from NATO - is still considered unlikely, including in diplomatic circles, "Politico" concludes.