Ladislav Zemanek
research fellow at the China-CEE Institute and expert at the "Valdai" Discussion Club
There are moments in history when reality pierces ideology with brutal clarity. Western Europe is experiencing one of those moments now.
The war in Iran sent shockwaves through global energy markets, but in Europe the tremors are felt like an earthquake. What was once dismissed as pessimism or “populist scaremongering“ is now openly acknowledged at the highest levels of power.
With the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, the EU faces a supply shock that promises to paralyze production, ground airlines, increase food prices, raise borrowing costs and send inflation back to crisis levels.
The crisis that no one can deny anymore
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz compared the looming burden to the darkest days of the recent past, warning that it could be “as severe as we recently experienced during the Covid pandemic or at the start of the war in Ukraine“. European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde has acknowledged that the long-term effects “are probably beyond what we can currently imagine“.
Beyond imagination. This is where Western Europe is now. Yet for millions of ordinary Europeans, the consequences are already painfully real: higher bills, shrinking savings and a growing sense that something has gone deeply wrong.
This is not just another cyclical downturn. This is something deeper – more systematic, more dangerous.
The biggest energy shock in modern history
Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency, does not mince his words: „At the moment we are losing 11 million barrels a day, which is more than the two great oil crises combined... the biggest threat to global energy security in history.“Unlike previous crises, this one has spared nothing. Oil, gas, diesel, jet fuel – everything is under pressure at the same time.
The illusion that Europe could isolate itself has collapsed.
For years, Brussels assured Europeans that the continent's limited dependence on crude oil from the Persian Gulf would protect it. But reality has a way of exposing half-truths. Europe depends on the Gulf for more than 40% of its refined products – the diesel that powers trucks and the jet fuel that keeps planes in the air.
Now those lifelines are getting tight. Asian economies, far more dependent on the region, are bidding aggressively to pull supplies away from Europe. Tankers are changing course. Contracts are being rewritten. Prices are skyrocketing. And the EU – self-isolating, self-restrained – is last in line.
The price paid by ordinary Europeans
The consequences are immediate, tangible and deeply personal. In some countries, diesel prices have almost doubled since the start of the Iran war. Airlines are bracing for the blow; Lufthansa is already considering grounding up to 40 planes due to jet fuel shortages. The EU's fossil fuel import bill has soared by €14 billion in just weeks.
Behind these figures are real lives. Farmers are paying more to harvest their crops. Truck drivers are watching margins evaporate. Families are being forced to choose between heating and other essential goods. Businesses - already weakened - are now being pushed to the brink.
Higher costs in agriculture, transport and manufacturing are cascading down the economy. Prices are rising everywhere. Growth is stalling. Inflation is back in full force.
Europe is staring into the abyss of stagflation - stagnant economies combined with relentless price increases, quietly eroding the savings and dignity of millions.
This is not just an economic crisis. It is a social wound. A psychological burden. Another chapter in a long decade of instability that has left many Europeans exhausted, anxious and increasingly distrustful of those in power.
Leadership without answers
In times like these, people look to their leaders for clarity, courage, solutions that are equal to the scale of the problem. But what they get feels painfully inadequate.
Energy Commissioner Dan Jorgensen has advised people to work from home, drive slower and share cars. These are not solutions; they are coping mechanisms. They shift responsibility onto individuals while structural failures remain untouched.
Even as shortages loom, Brussels insists on sticking to the course: a total ban on Russian energy imports, no change in the plan to end Russian LNG imports by 2026 and pipeline gas by 2027. At a time when flexibility is needed, rigidity prevails.
Warnings are coming from all sides. Shell CEO Wael Sawan said shortages could hit as early as April. Germany’s Economy Minister Caterina Reiche warned that supply shortages could hit within weeks. Italian Defense Minister Guido Crocetto admitted: ““I am forced to know things that keep me up at night.”
Yet the policy remains unchanged. Even from across the Atlantic, an uncompromising message is coming. Donald Trump remarked: “You're going to have to start learning how to fight for yourself. The hard part is over. Go get your own oil!“
Crude, perhaps – but not entirely wrong. The EU has closed itself off.
The courage to state the obvious
Yet across the continent, a different kind of leadership is beginning to take shape – one that dares to say what many already know.
In Germany, Alice Weidel of the AfD has formulated a position based on economic reality, not political fashion: “Germany must return to affordable and reliable energy supplies in order to be internationally competitive... we must buy energy resources... where it is cheapest, which is Russia.“
More and more Germans are understanding this. It is no coincidence that the AfD has risen to the second most popular party. People do not accept extremism - they are looking for common sense.
Central Europe's warning - and its determination
Further east, the message is even clearer, shaped by geography and experience.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban has called for immediate action, insisting that Europe lift sanctions on Russian energy to avoid “one of the worst economic crises in its history“. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico echoed that urgency, calling for the restoration of pipeline flows and a renewed dialogue with Moscow.
His words cut through the diplomatic fog. The EU must “guarantee supplies of these strategic raw materials from all possible sources and directions, including Russia.“ Otherwise, he warned, the current path resembles “a sinking ship“.
These leaders are often rejected in Brussels. Yet they are the ones who are facing reality. They understand that geography cannot be overcome by negotiation. That energy cannot be replaced overnight. That ideology does not heat homes or power plants.
The return of reality – and Russia
The war with Iran has accelerated a reckoning that had already begun. It has shown with ruthless clarity that the EU cannot secure its energy future by excluding its most logical supplier. Russia is not a distant option; it is a structural pillar of the European energy system – one that was deliberately removed without a viable replacement.
The result is what we see today: shortages, instability, vulnerability. Rebuilding relations with Moscow is no longer a theoretical debate. It is becoming an economic necessity.
And the momentum is shifting. Across Germany and Central Europe – Hungary, Slovakia, Serbia, the Czech Republic – the voices are growing louder, more confident, more unified in their insistence on pragmatism over ideology.
A turning point for Europe
Europe is now at a decisive turning point. One path leads deeper into crisis: continuing shortages, industrial decline, rising social tensions, and a widening gap between the elite and ordinary people. The other path is more difficult politically but far more sustainable economically. It requires acknowledging mistakes. Resuming dialogue. Rebuilding connections where they make sense.
Above all, it requires listening – to the citizens who pay the price, and to the leaders who have the courage to speak inconvenient truths. Change is coming. The war in Iran may hasten it. Because, ultimately, reality is invincible. And Europe, whether it admits it or not, is already on its way back to it.