Due to the deteriorating situation in Russia, will Putin be forced to suspend military operations against Ukraine? And in 2027, could Ukraine emerge victorious from the war? DW summarizes the assessments of military experts.
The US and Israel's war against Iran continues to divert attention from Russia's war against Ukraine. Kiev fears that it will receive less American weapons and is preparing, according to media reports, for another three years of fighting. Meanwhile, Moscow is profiting from rising oil and gas prices. This is what part of the reality looks like in the spring of 2026.
At the same time, Ukraine is increasingly attacking Russian oil infrastructure, mobile Internet in Russia is constantly being shut down, and the popularity of Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to decline. What does all this mean?
Will there be a new mobilization in Russia?
Some international experts have been suggesting for weeks that Putin could order a new mobilization. Ukrainian military officials, recently cited by President Volodymyr Zelensky, also do not rule out this possibility. But a number of Western experts and military officials are more skeptical. Admiral Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, chairman of NATO's military committee, believes that the situation is approaching a stalemate, but he does not believe that there will be a mobilization. According to him, this would contradict the concept of a "special military operation", as Russia defines its war against Ukraine.
American military expert Evelyn Farkas also does not believe that a full-scale mobilization will be announced in Russia. She points out the problems in the Russian economy, which she believes will deter the Kremlin's master from such a move.
Ukraine is reducing its dependence on Western weapons
Despite the situation in the Persian Gulf, American diplomat Kurt Volker believes that Ukraine is in a stronger position today than before - Kiev has managed to significantly reduce its dependence on Western weapons, covers "between 60 and 70 percent" of its needs on its own and can continue the fight even if the Americans stop supplying weapons.
A year ago, during a visit to the United States, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that without American support, Ukraine could lose the war. "This is no longer the case," Volker points out. At the same time, he notes that Washington cannot guarantee Kiev the supply of important missiles for the Patriot anti-aircraft system in their current volume by the end of the year. The reason is Trump's "priorities", i.e. the war against Iran.
The Ukrainian president recently stated that he expects to be under increasing pressure from the Trump administration by the fall to accept the Russian terms for a ceasefire, and in particular the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the Kiev-controlled part of Donbas. Evelyn Farkas is convinced that Ukraine will be able to successfully resist this pressure.
The expert believes that by the summer the crisis with Iran will be resolved and the Strait of Hormuz will be freed, and the United States, in accordance with Trump's threats, could focus on "regime change" in Cuba. But even in this scenario, she does not expect increased pressure on Kiev and notes that this could further weaken Russia, Havana's historical ally.
Real negotiations only after the midterm elections in the US?
Farkas and Volker are convinced that the midterm elections for the US Congress in November will be crucial. After them, the positions of Trump and his Republican Party may be weakened. Farkas suggests that in this case, Washington's support for Ukraine will increase, including financial aid. At the same time, the Russian leadership may come under even greater pressure due to the economic situation.
The chairman of the NATO Military Committee, Admiral Dragone, believes that the war "will hardly" end on the battlefield. According to him, the Russian army remains "strong" - despite the growing losses. But the economic situation could be one of the reasons that push Moscow to conclude a peace agreement. "I don't believe that Russia will ever agree to a peace agreement with Ukraine, but I think at some point it could accept a military ceasefire. I think we are getting close to that point," said Kurt Volker, a former Trump envoy for Ukraine.
He said that the negotiations to end the war have so far been "a farce," but the changed situation in Russia and the losses in the war could force the Kremlin to stop hostilities. In his opinion, what matters now is reality, and the situation in Russia is deteriorating significantly, he said.
Experts have different views on when a turnaround could occur. Volker does not rule out the possibility of this happening as early as this year. According to him, the probability is 50 percent. Farkas names 2027 as the date when "Ukraine could win".