Trump has directly threatened Cuba with military intervention, and Havana is apparently preparing its citizens for a military attack. Will there be a war between Cuba and the US?
"This is some kind of joke. If we live day by day, how can we stockpile food for war?", wrote a Cuban user on social media in response to government recommendations for preparing for a potential US military attack.
There are many posts like this one - it is clear on social media that Cubans are confused and worried after the publication of these recommendations and with the rising tension between Havana and Washington.
"The Family Manual for Protecting the Population in the Event of Military Aggression" recommends that everyone have a backpack prepared with personal documents, a radio, a lantern, matches, candles, a first aid kit, three days' worth of food, drinking water, hygiene products and medication for chronic diseases.
The document also recommends that everyone familiarize themselves with the shelters they can use in the event of a potential air strike. This manual was published at a time when tensions between the US and Cuba are escalating. In recent weeks, Donald Trump has repeatedly hinted that he intends to take action against Cuba, including directly: "Cuba is next."
Is Cuba preparing for war?
Tensions have risen even more after the American news platform Axios cited intelligence sources who said that Cuba has acquired more than 300 military drones and is exploring the possibility of using them around the US base in Guantanamo.
Analyst Guadalupe Correa-Cabrera says that this limited number of drones is unlikely to pose any serious threat. "In a military and strategic context, 300 drones are nothing compared to the capabilities of the United States," said the political science professor at "George Mason" University in Virginia, USA. The expert believes that the current situation should be viewed in a broader geopolitical context, which is related to tensions between the United States and other global players such as Russia and China.
"Cuba's geographical position - beyond its symbolism - is key for any country that wants to control the Western Hemisphere," explains Correa-Cabrera. According to her, buying drones from Havana is not such a serious cause for concern. A bigger problem is Havana's potential strategic alliances with countries that are hostile to the United States. "This is not a war between Cuba and the United States, but a global conflict that also includes other countries," explains the expert.
A humanitarian crisis would cost Washington dearly
Cuba has been hit by power outages, food and medical shortages, and a record influx of migrants in recent years. Some observers believe that the biggest risk for Washington may not come from military action. "The most serious effect will be psychological or political, not purely military", believes Juan Batalemé of the Argentine Council on Foreign Relations. "A potential humanitarian crisis would be much more problematic for the United States than a military conflict," he commented.
According to the expert, if a potential conflict triggers mass migration, the cadres of Cubans who en masse try to leave the island by water or seek humanitarian aid in Guantanamo will have a great political cost for Washington. Batalemé believes that the United States wants to avoid a crisis in the entire region. "Washington needs a change of power in Cuba that is peaceful and does not cause a major problem or tremors in the region," he said. "Cuba is currently similar to Venezuela in recent years - an extremely vulnerable country that remains somewhat afloat with external support."
Despite the sharp rhetoric and deepening diplomatic tensions, the international politics expert believes that a direct confrontation between the two countries is unlikely soon. "The situation continues to develop more on the political terrain than on the military one," Batalheme summarizes.