In a few months, Iceland will make one of the most important decisions in its history: on August 29, citizens will vote in a referendum on whether to resume EU accession negotiations. If negotiations with Brussels resume, there will be a second referendum - this time on accession itself. This is happening against the backdrop of deep political divisions in the country.
Why will the referendum be held earlier?
In fact, the center-left government of the island state, which is favorable to EU membership, wanted the citizens to vote only in 2027, but recent developments have caused the referendum to be significantly postponed.
In recent months, US President Donald Trump has repeatedly made claims to Greenland, Iceland's closest neighbor, and thus aroused fears among Icelanders. The supposedly joking statement by the appointed US ambassador to Reykjavik, Billy Long, in January that Iceland could soon become the 52nd US state further outraged Icelanders.
A survey conducted at the time showed that most Icelanders approve of EU membership. And according to another poll from early 2025 - even at that time, three-quarters of respondents saw the US as a threat.
How likely is EU accession?
Since the referendum was announced in March, however, public debates have undergone some change. Support for continuing the negotiations has "really decreased," says Maximilian Konrad, professor of European integration and political theory. "Voters want to know what the accession package includes, what the benefits will be for Iceland."
At the same time, recent surveys have recorded different data: according to a poll by the daily Morgunblaðið, 52 percent are "in favor" of continuing the negotiations, and according to a poll by the economic publication Viðskiptablaðið - 54 percent are against European membership, a Euractiv publication reports.
And while the ruling coalition advocates joining the EU as a geopolitical necessity, opponents warn of a loss of national sovereignty - especially in fishing, which is key to the Icelandic economy.
Fishing - the main controversial topic
Icelanders have traditionally been proud of their independence and self-reliance. Their geographical isolation has undoubtedly contributed to this. In 1944, the island republic gained independence from Denmark, and since then June 17 has been celebrated as a national holiday.
For decades, the topic of full EU membership was not relevant for Icelanders. The country is a member of the European Free Trade Association and the European Economic Area - thus enjoying all the advantages of the European internal market and being part of the Schengen area.
Full membership has so far failed mainly because of the EU's policy in the field of fishing. It is the most important sector in the Icelandic economy, but as a member of the Community Iceland would have to submit to the common policy in this sector. Reykjavik would be forced to open its fish-rich waters to ships from other EU countries, would lose national control over catch quotas and would probably have to fear the depletion of its fish stocks.
Alienation from Washington
Furthermore, despite being one of the founding countries of NATO, Iceland does not have its own army - although it occupies an increasingly important geostrategic position in the North Atlantic. For years, the country relied on US protection, but now it is increasingly viewed critically.
And not just because of Greenland: Trump's punitive 15% tariffs are hitting the fishing-dependent country particularly hard and are leading to further alienation. After all, the US is Iceland's second-largest trading partner after the European Union. That's why, despite all the fishing concerns, EU membership is being discussed more and more.
Support for the EU grows in times of crisis
This is not Reykjavik's first move towards the EU. In 2008, the island republic was hit hard by the global financial crisis. The country was on the verge of bankruptcy and applied for EU membership - in the hope that it would be able to come under the Community's bailout umbrella. But in the following years, Iceland managed to recover economically.
In 2013, elections were won by a Eurosceptic center-right coalition and negotiations were frozen. Enthusiasm for European membership also declined among the population. In 2015, the country withdrew its application altogether.
Brussels is ready
In the context of the current changed geopolitical situation, it seems that many Icelanders have changed their minds again. And Brussels is registering this with satisfaction. Since the country is already closely integrated into European structures through the European Free Trade Association and the European Economic Area, Brussels does not believe that accession negotiations would be complicated. And in the battle with the US for power and spheres of influence, Iceland's accession to the EU would be a clear signal to Washington.
Author: Thomas Lachan