The question of “Whose Crimea is” is now becoming relevant again.
Objectively speaking, in the next few months, the probability of Ukraine regaining full physical control over Crimea (through a large-scale land invasion and liberation) is assessed by military analysts as low.
This was commented on "Facebook" by Evgeniy Kanev.
However, Kiev's strategy at the moment is not aimed at an immediate capture by troops, but at something different: turning Crimea into an “island” and a logistical trap for Russia through air and sea blockade.
Why is physical return unlikely in the short term?
The front line is still far to the north (in Zaporizhia and Kherson regions). To launch a liberation operation, Ukraine must first break through the heavy Russian fortifications in southern Ukraine and reach the isthmuses (such as Chongar and Perekop) that connect the peninsula to the mainland. The current pace of ground fighting does not suggest such a lightning offensive within a matter of months.
Furthermore, Ukraine does not have the capacity for a large-scale amphibious (sea) landing, with which to transfer tens of thousands of soldiers and heavy equipment directly to the shores of Crimea.
What is Ukraine's real strategy at the moment?
Instead of an assault, Ukraine is conducting an extremely successful campaign to systematically choke off Russian logistics on the peninsula. The goal is to make Crimea militarily unusable for the Kremlin.
The strikes are in three directions:
(1) The land connection
Ukrainian forces regularly strike at the bridges connecting Crimea with the Kherson region (Chongarsky Bridge), the railway network, and the ferries in the Kerch Strait. This has already led to serious supply crises – for example, imposing strict restrictions and halting the sale of fuel to civilians in Crimea after successful strikes on oil depots.
(2) The Sea Link
Ukraine, through the use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and missiles (such as Storm Shadow and ATACMS), has forced Russia to withdraw most of its combat-capable ships from Sevastopol to safer ports in Novorossiysk.
(3) Disarmament and Attrition
Ukraine is conducting a targeted campaign to exhaust Russian air defense systems (such as the S-300 and S-400) on the peninsula, making Russian bases there increasingly vulnerable.
If Ukraine manages to completely neutralize Crimea - it will be, above all, a total collapse of Putin's reputation - it will discredit "the glamorous operation" for its capture in 2014. And he stopped using the Russian military base there since the end of the 18th century - the time of Catherine the Great. And his generals will pretend to be Potemkin in front of him only for a while.
Our tragicomedy is that we have a prime minister shamelessly serving Russian interests - Bulgaria buys a factory on September 8th.