Trump praised Zelensky, Lukashenko refused to attack Ukraine, and Crimea was left without fuel, electricity and water. The bell is tolling not only in praise of Ukraine, but also for the end of Russia, writes Professor Yevgeny Daynov.
The war is entering its final phase. The end will be for Russia. This has always been clear, except for those who did not bother to read with understanding.
Only 15 months ago, Donald Trump, following the line of attack of his Vice President Vance, told Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky: "You don't have the cards". The other day, the same Trump said that Zelensky was doing very well. Hours later, the State Department issued an official statement: Ukraine is already winning the war. A day later, Russian veteran Alexander Lunin warned Putin that if he does not tell "the whole truth about the war", the Russian army will leave the front to "point its weapons at the Kremlin".
Russia is not a full-fledged state today
It happens that Russia goes down in flames. Before our eyes, it ceases to function - it is unable to bear the burden of the war that it itself unleashed. As I warned the Russians back in March 2022: People, stop this disgrace, because at the end of it you will not have a state. What Russia is now is not a full-fledged state, but an imitation product.
Currently, there is no diesel and gasoline in the whole of Russia or they are sold under severe restrictions. Dozens of cities are without street lighting, public transport and garbage collection. In Crimea, there is no fuel, electricity, or water, and free access to the Internet is a distant memory. Instead, there is a state of emergency. Instead of an influx of vacationers, giant lines of cars are forming, trying to leave over the last bridge not destroyed by the Ukrainians. In addition to vacationers and ordinary citizens, Russian army officers, KGB officers, local collaborators, and so on are fleeing. As always, the Russian bosses abandon everyone else to their fate ("God grant"), while they themselves make off with the loot.
How did it get to this point?
The answer is: Volodymyr Zelensky. A huge number of people, including the entire heroic Ukrainian people, have contributed to Ukraine winning while Russia is falling apart. But it is Zelensky who is currently increasing the pressure on Putin, on Trump, on Lukashenko in Belarus every day to complete the endgame in favor of Ukraine and Europe.
From the very beginning, Zelensky took on the role of Churchill. On the first day of the war, he told the Western powers: I don’t need a plane to evacuate. I need ammunition to fight. This is a direct reference to a speech Churchill gave as Prime Minister, when everything seemed lost and everyone was pressing him to go and pray to Hitler: "We will fight on the shores. We will fight on the beaches. We will fight in the hills and in the cities. We will never surrender."
Today, Zelensky is already moving from Churchill in 1940 to Churchill in 1943. He is no longer the somewhat doomed hero on the defensive. He is now the world leader, putting a noose around the necks of his opponents and tightening it just as much and exactly when he decides. He is the one who, in a world that was until recently without rules, creates the rules. And forces others to play by them.
How Zelensky pushed Russia and Belarus to the wall
It is obvious that sometime last fall Zelensky made a strategic decision. Instead of losing people in frontal attacks against the sea of Russian soldiers, he decided to shift the focus. On the front - to eliminate the maximum number of Russian soldiers until they give up attacking. On the larger arena: with deep and systematic daily strikes to liquidate Russia's fuel and economic structure, so that it enters the usual trajectory for it, in such situations, of internal disintegration, internal conflict and ultimately - a large-scale uprising or civil war.
It started with logistics: supplying the front-line units and divisions. It listened to the great Anglo-American generals, who have been repeating for years in their analyses: amateurs look at the front, professionals look at logistics. No supplies - no army.
Meanwhile, Zelensky also locked the Belarusian dictator Lukashenko in a cage. A week ago, he gave him an ultimatum: either you turn off the stations that direct Russian drones from your territory to strike targets on my territory, or we will turn them off. Why didn't Zelensky do this earlier? Didn't he know for the past four years that Lukashenko was directing Russian drones? He did. But she didn't have the power to threaten him. Now she has it.
The next day, Putin pressured Lukashenko to bring the Belarusian army into the war by attacking Kiev from the north. However, Lukashenko is a shot rabbit. He has been the master of Belarus since 1994, and Putin of Muscovy - only since 2000. He summoned the Russian ambassador to tell him the following: "Ukrainian units of the Territorial Guard have been built across the border. These are milkmaids, machine operators and workers. We have no quarrel with them. And we will not go kill them".
Zelensky strained the situation to force Lukashenko to choose between the strong and the weak - between Zelensky and Putin. Who did the experienced Lukashenko choose? Zelensky.
Even Trump hurried to line up with Zelensky
Zelensky carried out a similar operation in Poland.. Weeks ago, Polish President Nawrocki, positioning himself as the "Polish Trump", started a loud scandal with Ukraine, similar to the Macedonian one with us: about history. But since that day, a group of European powers has been meeting in Gdansk, thinking about how to help Ukraine. Zelensky did not go, but he talked in advance with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, his ministers, and opinion leaders. The result: Tusk did not invite President Nawrocki to the meeting. And at it, Tusk categorically sided with Ukraine, reminding the Polish Trumpists that for both Poland and Ukraine, Russia is a centuries-old enemy. And that united resistance to this enemy is a matter of life and death for both Poland and Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Zelensky had found a way to tell Trump that the power no longer lies with Putin, but with him, and that it is extremely important for Trump to be seen as standing with the strong. And within days, the attitude of even the Trump administration has changed.
As I write this, Zelensky has announced a 40-day campaign by his army to destroy Russia's energy and logistics infrastructure until the war is over.
What will happen to Russia?
Let me tell you, dear reader, what lies ahead: the Russian army in Crimea, left without supplies, will follow the fate of all armies before it that have found themselves in this situation: the Tatars in the late 18th century; the Russian army during the Crimean War in the mid-19th century; of Wrangel's White Guards in 1920; of the Soviet army in 1941; of the German army in 1943. What is this fate? Capitulation.
From Russia we will observe limited-scale rebellions against the authorities. The authorities themselves will begin to openly plunder their own people - confiscating bank deposits and companies, printing paper money, suspending pensions and salaries. When the authorities move in this direction, ordinary Russians will understand that the law of the jungle is coming and will join it (so as not to get away with it). They will cheat and rob each other. The Russian Internet already has instructions for young people who do not remember the customs of the USSR on how to drain fuel from their neighbors' cars.
The bell does not ring only in praise of the Ukrainian people. The bell is already ringing for the end of Russia.
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This text expresses the opinion of the author and may not coincide with the positions of the Bulgarian editorial office and the State News Agency as a whole.