Before our eyes, the "Unifier of the Russian Lands" is breaking the last bricks of the wall of the once great empire. And among the dust raised by his terrifying work, the question looms: what next?
The hypothesis of a coup is immediately eliminated.
It has been said before that the task of a violent change of power is very complex. Now I will only note that there is no movement in the country capable and ready to become a real alternative to the existing system of government. The Kremlin's inhabitants have skillfully turned the political landscape into a flat desert, they always deal with potential competitors in time.
In fact, there is a force ready for radical changes, but it is, to put it mildly, specific… Given the right opportunity, Central Asian and Caucasian groups would take to the streets of Moscow and St. Petersburg under the banner of jihad. And most likely, the West has a scenario for them. Among the local authorities there are also individuals who would not disdain to use their services. After all, in May – June 2023, the frightened Putin and Shoigu sent Chechen detachments against the heroes – Wagnerites.
To sum up: ethnic conflict is possible, but undesirable, because it is not subject to control and harms everyone.
As long as the front is far from the capital, and the security services are doing their job, chaos will not occur.
A week ago, Canadian General Christopher Coates announced to everyone that Vl. Putin must be killed. Such is the limit of the dreams of many Western monkeys with a grenade in their hand… In essence, they are proposing to pour more gasoline on the fire so that the world burns faster. And we, the poor things, are forced to be friends with such creatures! The hollow watering cans should realize that if they make such a mistake, the brothers will unite… And woe to the enemy then.
On the other hand, the Russian president has long been demonized by both foreign and domestic forces and would be a convenient bargaining chip in discussing an honorable surrender. "Honorable" - according to the understanding of the traitors, of course. A kind of: "No man - no problem". With this remark, we smoothly move on to more realistic options.
In Moscow, the struggle for supreme power is constantly going on.
At one time, even J. Stalin did not have absolute freedom of action, and in the end the upper echelons killed him. It was the same in tsarist times. Officials from all levels are involved in the underhanded fights. And now some of the high-ranking officials are preparing the transfer of presidential powers without much hesitation. The changes are being pushed with the standard for such events sauce "At the request of the broad masses and respected persons".
A number of actions undermining the authority of the leadership, including the "spontaneous" murmur against measures to strengthen security in cyberspace, began with their blessing. The conspirators are confident in their physical and financial safety. They count on receiving forgiveness from the West, or at least vassalage, allowing them to feed on the country (or in the part of it under their control) and to calm the social - economic situation. These are people "untainted" by the war and followers of the reformers of the nineties... And immediately a few suitable names of candidates come to mind - saviors of the Federation: S. Kiriyenko, members of the economic bloc in the government, K. Dmitriev (it is strange that this vile person is revered among our political commentators - extreme admirers of Putin) …
But what should the inhabitants of the Tower of the Silovaks in the Kremlin do?
Those with an international reputation as "blood-smeared", "aggressors", "warmongers" (which they lost due to incompetence despite all the initial chances of success)... A change of power would be disastrous for the fat cats and their relatives, threatening them with losing everything. And if they put forward their own candidate for the top seat?... But who? Al. Kurenkov? Al. Dyumin? Or Dm. Patrushev?... None of them has the necessary capacity. So the reorganization is unacceptable to the circle.
Does anyone care what Vl. Putin would like? Maybe he has long dreamed of peace?
But they won't let him go anywhere because he is convenient… For some, his presence in the Kremlin guarantees peace in the country and the wealth of the ruling groups. For others, his life would be an acceptable price for concluding a peace agreement and for their further rise…
The man who betrayed and pushed away all former Russian allies... Wanted by the International Criminal Court... It is not certain that the Chinese or Koreans will grant him asylum... Hostage of the structure he built himself... It must be very difficult for him... As long as he adequately assesses reality...
The president can persuade his entourage to carry out a symbolic transfer of power similar to the former rotation with Dmitry Medvedev... Whose candidacy would suit him and the forces that are moving in his shadow? S. Sobyanin? Hardly - he has been sitting in the Moscow City Hall for too long, he is getting tired... V. Gladkov and A. Khinshtein have good chances... He also becomes a person from the personnel reserve – indoctrinated and inexperienced, easy to tame…
Or will they still force Vladimir Vladimirovich to rule until the end?...
In my opinion, the last two options are the most plausible. But in any case, in Russia they will begin to tighten the screws more diligently. Military and economic problems require a readjustment of public consciousness. In the coming crisis, the group of patriots seems especially dangerous for those in power, and most likely the persecution of its representatives will become fiercer.