The war in Iran has seriously started again. The 7th US attack on Iranian territory is underway. 4,300 people have died in Lebanon and 12,000 have been injured, and Israel is leveling the southern part of the country.
Ukraine is definitely preparing for a heavy winter bombing. The climate has gone crazy, especially in Europe. In the West, they write that Kiev is starting its own "Battle of Britain". Russia will bomb in the winter, but Putin is making an unusual intervention in monetary policy for him - calling for a reduction in interest rates.
The question is whether the Russian economy is really starting to collapse or are these preventive measures. The heat shows that the planet's climate is also in disarray. Trump has pulled out of peace talks with a reshuffle for Ukraine and the Swiss-Iran deal dead. Hormuz is closed. The IAEA has announced that more than half of its 400 million barrel reserve has already been used.
The US strategic oil reserves are already almost exhausted. In a few months, an energy crisis will occur, against the backdrop of which the queues for gasoline in Russia will look like child's play. The Houthis continue to support Tehran and have announced that they will close the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait at the mouth of the Red Sea. In addition to the closed Hormuz.
In response, if Saudi Arabia invades Yemen, it will block the export of oil from Riyadh, which leaves the Persian Gulf via pipelines through the Red Sea port of Yanbu in a westerly direction. The energy crisis is tied up in a towel.
At the same time, Zelensky announces an "updated political strategy for the country" by carrying out a complete reorganization of the government in Kiev with personnel changes. The signals are that this is not another routine political crisis or corruption scandal, but conscious actions to actively prepare for a terrible winter with a humanitarian catastrophe.
Yulia Mendel, Zelensky's press secretary, also writes about Zelensky's reshuffles in the government. She claims that Zelensky has realized that he is alone, that he has given up on the idea of an agreement with Putin and is preparing to fight to the death in the "Battle of Britain". Another question is who is pulling his strings. Those who are closely following the processes in Moscow and are aware that it is not usual for Putin to openly side with the oligarchs and insist on lowering interest rates at this time.
It will become clear at the monetary policy meeting on July 24. It is almost certain that Nabiullina will give in to the demands. Although it is known that Putin had given her full control over the Central Bank and monetary policy in the country. It is assumed that he will reduce interest rates symbolically by 25 basis points. Inflation will be 6.2%.
For Putin, this is a rather radical change. As the Russian fertilizer magnate Andrei Melnichenko, a graduate of quantum mechanics from a leading Moscow university, said in his interview with "The Economist", "the international security order after World War II has simply collapsed".
Apparently, the world is indeed in the era of the end of the empire Post Pax Americana and the interregnum has already begun. It will bring chaos that happens once every 100-200 years. But to say that "the world is in a car accelerating towards a brick wall at a mind-bogglingly fast speed" is at least for the purpose of instilling fear before an expected catastrophe in a given country.
But if we return to the specifics of one of the links of the changes taking place near us, the question will undoubtedly be what Zelensky actually achieves with the government changes in Kiev? A step forward, a step back with the appointment of a new prime minister in the person of Serhiy Koretsky and the removal of Mykhailo Fedorov, Minister of Defense?
Koretsky is an oil and gas man who, from a trader in the private sector, has risen to the management of the two largest energy companies in Ukraine - Ukrnafta and Naftogaz. Known as a man without political bias and ambitions. A wealthy businessman with no obvious suspicions of corrupt practices in his activities. Surprised by Zelensky's proposal, but accepted it without delay.
It is clear that Zelensky is counting on this highly professional and competent manager to be able to prepare Ukraine for a harsh winter with many Russian bombings. Energy is definitely the key to the war at this stage. We need professionals, not loyalists, as Zelensky has been doing so far, to break the deadlock. He already knows from considerable experience that in order to govern an ultra-corrupt government, it is necessary to surround yourself with a team based on personal loyalty.
This is the working system. Because "corruption is not a problem of the system, it is the system". And if you also have law enforcement and anti-corruption agencies under your control, then the problems are also under control.
For personal gain. Now that the NATO summit in Ankara has passed and the rhetoric about the "turning point" in the war with Russia has faded, it is time for changes in order to control the situation with infighting in the government, criticism of the mayor of Kiev, growing dissatisfaction among ordinary citizens and protests in Lviv / and not only! / due to practices of kidnapping young people to send to the front, as well as silencing the voice of Zaluzhny from London, who spews a lot of intertweets with "do not underestimate Russia" and "look at the real situation on the front".
The fall of Konstantinovka sobered the narrative "Ukraine has already won", as Stubb, the Finnish president, said. There are fears that by the fall the last parts of Donbas will be captured.
Information is coming from Moscow that Russian forces are 5 km from Kramatorsk. Effective drone attacks over Russian territories are inspiring as propaganda and for enchanting "coalitions of the willing", but they do not lead to negotiations with better positions against a weakened enemy. The moment is suitable for a reorganization of the government. Regardless of the possible arrival of the 70/90 billion dollars promised by the EU for 2 years. Exactly for 2 years of war.
The dismissal of Fedorov, a popular 38-year-old defense minister, is perceived as bad news in Kiev. He is credited with many successes, which he described in detail in a farewell tweet without a drop of modesty. As they say, he rubbed Zelensky's nose with "it was a great honor for me to serve the Ukrainian people as the Minister of Defense" and protests in his defense followed.
Among the successes are preventing the Russians from accessing Starlink, initiatives to isolate Crimea, a program for modern drone assault units, a fundamentally revised public procurement system, the first deliveries of pickup trucks, buggies and ATVs to the military, agreements for Patriot missiles, a basic drone supply system, transformation of the army, breakthroughs in Russian information traps, contracts for the supply of Gripen, etc.
He thanked his team, but there is no mention of the terrorist attack in Monaco, which the surviving businessman, Vadim Ermolaev, claims was the work of the GUR, the military intelligence subordinate to the Ministry of Defense, and about which both the minister and Zelensky could not have been unaware. Apparently, the military and the security forces pressured Zelensky to dismiss Fedorov.
Why? Just because Syrsky, the commander of the Ukrainian troops, a Russian-trained, career soldier called the “butcher”, gathered his forces and blocked Fedorov's reappointment as part of the regular political game of rivals in the government? Or because proposed reforms in the army violated rules on corruption?
It matters that the West is behind Fedorov and the protests against his resignation. That is probably why Zelensky considered releasing Syrsky and conducting interviews with military personnel for his post. A solid defense of a 1,200-km front line is needed. It is known that a lot of money is made in the Ministry of Defense, and Zelensky cannot help but be part of it. A rotten system? There is no evidence.
Who Zelensky sympathizes with is not the most important thing. The important thing is that at such a moment, during a government reshuffle, he managed to gather representatives, with few leaders, in Kiev at a forum "Ukraine - Southeast Europe" and present a declaration with "we accept" all the conditions that Ukraine would like to impose on Russia with the unlimited support of Brussels in order to win the war. To show the Ukrainians how much support the country has abroad and how the country's leader is valued.
And what kind of slaps Bulgaria has landed in this game of Zelensky is another topic. What was said some time ago "we hope for the best, but things are getting in the way as always" remains. Incidentally, stated by former Prime Minister of Russia Chernomyrdin, forgotten today. Prime Minister Radev is on the move.