The military expert comments on the risks to national security, the capabilities of the Bulgarian air defense, the deployment of American planes at the "Bezmer" airbase and the necessary measures to protect the country.
– General Shivikov, Bulgaria is in an increasingly unstable geopolitical region. If you have to make an honest assessment – Do we feel protected, or is it time for the state to undertake much more serious investments in defense and security in order to be prepared for the challenges of the 21st century?
– Bulgaria, as a gateway to Europe between two continents, has had and has its place since its existence and plays a significant role in the security of this region. Of course, in the context of its membership in different blocs in our recent history, the levels of security and protection have had different dimensions. Theoretically speaking and according to the assessments of our current political elite, Bulgaria is protected and secure thanks to its membership in NATO and the EU, but is this really so? I personally doubt it. I will even refer to Article 3 of the Washington Treaty, which states that each country is obliged to maintain and develop individual and collective defense capabilities in order to effectively resist an armed attack. In this sense, there is still much that needs to be done in the field of defense and the national security system. The fact is that in recent years projects for the three types of armed forces have been launched and are being implemented, but they have not yet been completed, and this affects the capabilities of our armed forces to guarantee the territorial integrity and sovereignty of the country.
– General Shivikov, the deployment of American tanker aircraft at the Bezmer airbase has aroused serious public interest and controversial debate. From a purely military point of view, does such a logistical infrastructure turn Bulgaria into a potential strategic target in the event of a possible escalation of the conflict in the Middle East?
– The negative reaction of our society after the permission to deploy these aircraft at the Bezmer airbase is quite natural, because in this way we became part of the aggressor countries (the USA and Israel) against sovereign Iran. Yes, we consciously became, thanks to our politicians, a legitimate military target of Iran. Regardless of the frantic efforts of the rulers to deceive the society that we are not accomplices in the aggression, I will refute them with the following arguments – ensuring the combat operations of the troops is a complex of comprehensive measures that maintain high readiness, preserve combat capability and create favorable conditions for conducting combat operations. This provision is divided into combat, special-technical and logistical, i.e. we logistically provide the aircraft so that the US can achieve its military goals. Doesn't that make us accomplices? This is how we became part of the aggressor countries and became a legitimate target for Iran, which has the sovereign right to defend itself.
– According to public information, Iran has ballistic and cruise missiles with a range of up to 2000-3000 kilometers. Is it realistic for the “Bezmer“ airbase to fall within their operational range and how do you assess the likelihood of such a scenario?
– You are absolutely right. Iran has similar missiles, within the range of which the Bezmer airbase is located, and this causes great concern not only for me, but also for a large part of our compatriots. With the escalation of the second stage of aggression, and this is seen every day through the US striking Iranian civilian infrastructure sites and Iran's immediate, precise, reciprocal responses with the destruction of American military installations on the territory of neighboring Arab countries, it is confirmed that no country is completely protected.
- The Bulgarian authorities assure that the American aircraft will perform only logistical missions. However, is there a difference in the way a potential enemy state would perceive a logistical base and a base from which combat aircraft take off?
- Logistical support plays an important role in ensuring combat operations. Especially in the case of air combat operations, it does not matter where the supporting aircraft take off and land, they are essentially an element of the combat formation. The attempts of politicians to mislead the public that there will be no combat operations from and on the territory of our country are untenable.
- If a hypothetical missile attack were to be launched against the “Bezmer“ airbase, is the current capacity of the Bulgarian air and missile defense sufficient or would our country depend mainly on the NATO collective defense system?
- I believe that we ourselves are not able to provide reliable missile defense, but our air defense is part of the integrated allied defense, it is considered that the level is high enough and will largely guarantee our security. In addition, an official statement by the US European Command states that it will take over the defense of allies who are committed to supporting the US.
- Bulgaria still uses the S-300 systems. How effectively can they counter modern ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and massive drone attacks that are already used in modern conflicts?
- We have two S-300 divisions that are engaged in the defense of the capital and the Kozloduy NPP, and I doubt that they will be redeployed with the task of ensuring the defense of the southeastern part of our country. It is more likely that we will ask for assistance from Greece or Turkey to tighten the defense. It is not advisable to use the S-300 against drones, it will cost us too much. In the event of a possible attack by Iran, it will use missiles.
- If NATO determines that the risk to the region is increasing, do you think it is necessary to pre-deploy Patriot systems or other modern missile defense means in our country, instead of waiting for a possible crisis?
- I believe that after analyzing and assessing the situation of the risks of launching missiles against the Bezmer airbase, the government is obliged to request the immediate deployment of the Patriot complex. In the coming days, it will become clear how real the risks are. I hope that the government will take preventive measures, not subsequent ones.
- In addition to the danger of a missile strike, how realistic are the risks of hybrid actions - sabotage, cyberattacks, sabotage or drone attacks against strategic objects such as the Bezmer airbase?
- The danger is multi-vector and no one is insured against hybrid activities. In addition, it is extremely difficult to predict and prevent them. They do not necessarily have to manifest themselves immediately, they can be postponed over time. I will give just one example with Spain, it was part of the Coalition of the Willing in the war in Iraq in 2003, a few years later terrorist attacks were carried out in Spain by radical elements with hundreds of victims and injuries. Perhaps this is the reason why Spain is cautious today and does not allow the use of its territory for aggression against third countries, even though it is a member of NATO.
- There is public comment that diplomatic warnings from Iran are part of psychological pressure. How do you interpret such signals - as an element of diplomatic rhetoric or as an indication that military analysts should take extremely seriously?
- It is natural that this is a tool for pressure and an attempt to influence a decision that will be to the detriment of Iran in this case. The note handed over is a serious warning to our government and reaffirms Iran's position that any facility, regardless of where it is located and which is used by the US to carry out missile strikes, is considered a legitimate military target. Our government is obliged to take measures to guarantee the security not only of the airbase, but also of the entire region.
- If the tension between the US and Iran continues to escalate, what specific measures do you think Bulgaria should take right now to guarantee the security of both the military infrastructure and the civilian population?
- It is not appropriate to publicly announce the measures, because they will become vulnerable. I hope that the government together with the services have already begun to implement the identified comprehensive measures in practice. Hopefully, these measures will not be directed only at and inside the airbase, but will also extend to the population and the entire infrastructure in the region. The population should be informed and familiarized with the measures to the extent of "need to know" and training should be conducted.
- And the most important question - what would you say to Bulgarian citizens today? Is there reason for concern about the presence of American planes at the Bezmer airbase or should society remain calm because the risk remains mostly hypothetical? What could this move on the Bulgarian side ultimately lead to?
- Essentially, our society should be informed, not manipulated and deceived. There should be no unnecessary fear. Calmness is a guarantee that in the event of a real attack, the damage would be many times smaller than in conditions of panic and chaos. For me, the decision to allow the basing of American aircraft in our country is a wrong move with subsequent consequences for us. We have branded ourselves as aggressors.
Interview with Olya AL-AHMEED