A new banner with Ataturk's quote "I have two great causes; one is the Republic of Turkey, and the other is the Republican People's Party" has been erected at the General Headquarters of the HRP.
Ataturk added it with "we will not give up either the republic or the party". This banner follows the announcement by Özgür Özel, the HRP leader who was removed after a court ruling, of a "march to power as the Turkish Alliance". Özel's request to form a new party, separated from the HDP, after the court placed the old leader Kalıçdaroğlu at the head of the Kemalists in Turkey, was announced by the media around the world as a “new challenge to Erdogan”.
Özel's new movement is expected to be officially established this week, with at least 135 HDP deputies joining the new party. Moreover, the change of HDP leadership by a court decision caused a negative reaction from a significant part of the party's voters. Especially knowing that Özel managed to lead the HDP to significant successes in the local elections in 2024 and thus make it the leading party in the country, the main opposition with ambitions to win elections against Erdogan.
These days, Özel clearly indicated what kind of party he wants the new one to be with the words “of course, we are social democrats and we will certainly support the founders of the country, its founding principles and the ideals of our party that we adopted with its founding”. Addressing the social democrats in Turkey, the conservatives, nationalists, Kurds, socialists and liberal democrats, all democrats who are at peace with the values of the Republic, he called on them to grow and strengthen together.
The signal is that they will move towards the future without rejecting the legacy of the past. They will kind of embrace the new without abandoning the old. It was delivered in Özal's farewell speech at a meeting of the HDP parliamentary group, where he announced the formation of the new party with fellow MPs. And this intra-Turkish event immediately became one of the main events in the news about Turkey in international agencies. Some of them decided that the new party could create a new center against the Erdogan regime, while others emphasized the concerns that the division in the HDP would weaken the power of the opposition in the short term.
But it is a fact that the creation of a new party in Turkey with Özal as its leader received extensive coverage in the “Financial Times”, “Bloomberg”, “Reuters”, “Associated Press”, “AFP”, “Die Welt”, “Kathimerini” in Greece, and in the “Times of India”. In most cases, these media outlets indicated that “Özal's move will change Turkish politics” and “by fighting Erdogan”. They assume that this is not only a split within the PKK, but also an attempt to unite the fragmented opposition and capitalize on the discontent of voters before the 2028 elections. If they are held according to the constitution as a deadline, but even if they are held early.
Such options are also being launched in the domestic political plan. There is no doubt that the new party can become the largest opposition party in the Mejlis /Grand National Assembly of Turkey/ by attracting many deputies. But the legal risks that Özal faces are not small. It is simply a process with many uncertainties. It may turn out that the division is in Erdogan's favor.
And instead of political balance in Turkey, it may lead to consolidation around Erdogan and he will once again remain at the top. However, Reuters states that “this political calculation can only change if the new party builds strong public support and becomes the main center of the opposition”. The basis for such a conclusion is made because of the success of the local elections, which may prove to be an important starting point for potential voter support for the new party. It is not very certain.
All the world's media are unanimous that Özal came to such a decision after he was removed from office by a court decision. Controversial and contrary to the law. But Erdogan knows how to play the game. At this stage, the media are not unanimous, especially in relation to the number of deputies that Özal can attract to the new party. They assume that they are between 83-85, even 135, but this means that the classic NRP will remain with 50 deputies, i.e. it will be the 4th parliamentary force. The application for the creation of the new party is to be submitted to the Ministry of Interior these days, and then the deep analyses and guesses will begin.
The curious thing is that the German press is discussing the news of the new party in Turkey at length. According to “Die Welt”, if Özal has 80 deputies, the new party will undoubtedly be the largest opposition party in Turkey. It notes that the new formation can receive support not only from the current HDP voters in the country, but also from opposition groups outside the party. And those who are outside the Mejlis. However, limited access to the media, political pressure and attacks from Erdogan's supporters will have their say. These are difficulties that the new party will immediately face.
The Greek “Kathimerini” believes that Özal's departure is not a capitulation to political pressure, but is “the beginning of a new understanding of the opposition”. However, it is emphasized that the main opposition in Turkey is dividing anyway, and this is in Erdogan's favor. And the split is not a sudden act. There was a meeting of the provincial chairmen, then with the deputies, and it is expected that those who joined will resign as deputies. In order to participate in the creation of the new party.
Özal is convinced that with “our deputies we will become the main opposition force in the Grand National Assembly of Turkey and by a large margin”. Thus he said goodbye to the podium in the Assembly, the podium of the HDP group, but declared that “we will never give up the podium of the main opposition party group”. Not a word about defeating Erdogan. Then, Turkish media write, Özal met with 74 provincial representatives of his party, 52 of whom were dismissed by the HDP General Staff. The meeting took place in a hotel in the representative district of Çankaya.
At this stage, 83 deputies have announced their joining the new party. But there is still no collective confirmation from the deputies themselves. Özal informed them that the statute and program of the new party are being prepared and will be presented in early August, which will be the official step. Everything is in the planning stage, but options for unsuccessful legal paths are also being considered. The application for the establishment of the new party is planned for July 24-27.
“Der Spiegel” has already written that a new party in Turkey is “a new hope for democracy in Turkey” and dedicated an entire cover to the event. The German Social Democratic Party, the SPD, has congratulated Özgür Özal, but it is known that this publication is known for its critical publications on Turkey. And the SPD is a coalition partner in Chancellor Merz's government. Now they remind us that the removal of the leadership of the HDP through a court, the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu and a number of mayors and local administrators in Turkey, as well as the measures against the opposition in the country have led to this attempt to establish a new party and in fact they are at the bottom of the damage to democracy in Turkey.
Whatever the media abroad write, such events really shake the domestic political situation in Turkey. Which, however, has nothing to do with the role of the country and Erdogan's ambitions for influence in international affairs. Surpassing regional games. A characteristic feature of politicians in Turkey, both ruling and opposition, is that Ankara's interests are so high that they remain united in defending them. Foreign policy can be criticized, but rather the mechanisms or ways to achieve national interests, but the goals for everyone remain in the style of “Turkey above all”.
However, we should not forget that a few days ago in Turkey there was a forum with calls for the country to join its allies Russia, China, Iran and India, and Erdogan did not fail to hint in marking the anniversary of the coup attempt in the country that he is aware of the authors of this act. He does not forget. And whether Turkey looks with one eye to the West and with the other to the East is an old practice and at this stage Özal farsightedly prefers not to discuss. Western support for the PKK has always existed, but this, as can be seen, did not prevent Erdogan from being the leader of the country for more than 22 years. Events are ahead. And elections too.