The danger to Bulgaria is not related to a direct Iranian missile strike, but to a series of asymmetric and hybrid instruments. Ruslan Trad and Luben Yovchev on Iran's threat to attack American sites in Europe.
Media reports that the authorities in Iran view the military base in Bezmer as a potential target for attacks have stirred the spirits.
In recent months, the Foreign Ministry in Tehran has repeatedly warned Bulgaria to reconsider its decision to allow American military aircraft to its airports in order to "not face consequences". But what could these consequences be?
Could Iran launch drones and missiles at Bezmer?
Purely theoretically, Iranian ballistic missiles and drones could reach Bezmer, even though the military base is located at the edge of their range. However, this scenario is unlikely, believes military analyst Ruslan Trad. "The mission in Bezmer is purely logistical - refueling, not combat flights from Bulgarian territory - while the target hit in Cyprus, "Akrotiri", was directly related to combat operations against Iran," he explains. In early March, the Cypriot foreign minister announced that an Iranian drone had hit the British base in the southern parts of the island. Several drones were subsequently intercepted and shot down.
"Opening a new front against a NATO member over a few unarmed tankers would bring Iran minimal benefit, and the risk of provoking Article 5 consultations is a serious deterrent, while Tehran is already engaged with Israel, the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea," Ruslan Trad also explains. Iran continues to strike American targets in the Middle East, while at the same time the Tehran-backed Houthis in Yemen have declared a blockade of Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea. US allies in the European Union have so far not directly involved in the conflict, which has drawn serious criticism from Trump. Activating Article 5 after an attack on a country in Europe would change this.
A strike with ballistic or cruise missiles is unlikely, says Lyuben Yovchev of the military company "Terem-Holding" EAD. "The main risk is not from a strike with ballistic or cruise missiles, nor long-range drones. It is a sabotage or attack with a small FPV drone, locally in close proximity to the base, cyber operations against critical infrastructure, terrorism against soft targets related to Israel, the US or the Jewish community, and information operations, "adds the head of innovation and development at the state-owned company.
Will NATO air defense systems be able to protect Bulgaria?
There is a group of Iranian missile and drone systems within whose range Bulgaria and Bezmer fall - Shahab-3 (up to about 2000 km), Sejil (2000-2500 km), Khorremshahr (2000-3000 km), Sumar cruise missiles (about 2000-2500 km), Shahed-136 drone (about 2500 km), explains Trad.
However, an attack means flying over a third territory and it is one from NATO - "most likely Turkish airspace, and not a direct route through Cyprus and the Caucasus, as is often assumed. This automatically intervenes in NATO's most densely protected eastern flank even before the missile or drone approaches Bulgarian skies."
NATO has its own anti-ballistic missile system, and in addition, Turkey also maintains one of the most serious air defense systems in the world.
Against single ballistic missiles along the southeastern axis, the coverage is good and Bulgaria does not defend itself, says Lyuben Yovchev. "Against low-flying small drones, such coverage does not exist - neither Deveselu, nor "Patriot" solve the problem that arose in the Kardam drone incident on August 8."
Of particular importance to Bulgaria is the "Aegis Ashore" system, located in Deveselu, Romania, which is supposed to intercept ballistic missiles from the Middle East, the "Patriot" batteries in Greece and Turkey, as well as Ankara's other air defense systems. "Turkey hosts the "Incirlik" base and is the most heavily protected eastern flank of the alliance. In March of this year, the ballistic threat aimed at Turkey was intercepted by NATO in less than 10 minutes from detection to neutralization," emphasizes Ruslan Trad. "The weak link remains the low altitude and the ability of "Shahed" drones to bypass radar coverage - this is how the drone that hit "Akrotiri" in Cyprus on March 1-2, managed to get through the otherwise developed air defenses of the British base," adds the journalist from "Capital"..
Bulgaria relies almost entirely on its partners. "Bulgaria's own air defense still consists mainly of Soviet-made S-300 systems, which are effective against older targets, but are not optimized against massive attacks with modern cruise missiles or low-flying kamikaze drones. In the event of a real threat, Bulgaria would request the urgent deployment of allied Patriot batteries or French SAMP/T", says Trad. "The Bulgarian component remains the weakest link," adds Yovchev. "The S-300PMU air defense system has no real anti-missile capability, the future IRIS-T SLM intercepts aircraft, cruise missiles and large drones, but not ballistic missiles and FPV, and the planned 10 SHORAD (short-range air defense) systems could provide some protection, but would be more effective with an early detection system, which is currently missing."
The risk of proxies or mercenaries is greater
Over the years, Iran has relied on various proxies to carry out provocations and attacks, so that the regime can distance itself from them if necessary. The situation is similar with the attack on "Sarafovo" airport in Burgas in 2012. "The investigation established links with Hezbollah's military wing, and not directly with the Iranian state, and both Hezbollah and Tehran denied involvement", recalls Ruslan Trad. "Similar pro-Iranian cells may also try to bring drones into European territory, which would be possible through Bulgarian borders, since there is no serious resource and awareness of the problem related to Iran's networks."
"Recently, the preferred Iranian method in Europe is to assign criminal networks - financially motivated contractors with no connection to the leading officers, often minors or petty criminals. This maximizes deniability and complicates proving Iranian sponsorship," explains Lyuben Yovchev from "Terem-Holding". "A "cell" is not needed for a provocation near "Bezmer". "One recruited local person with a drone for 1,000 euros and information that is already public is enough," he adds.
In May, Europol announced a large-scale campaign against disinformation spread by profiles close to the Revolutionary Guard on social networks. This includes 14,200 publications and accounts. Law enforcement agencies from 19 countries, including Bulgaria, participated in the action.
With hybrid and propaganda methods, Iran can continue to destabilize Europe and its NATO partners in the coming months, Ruslan Trad also predicts. "The most realistic danger for Bulgaria is not a direct missile strike, but a series of asymmetric and hybrid instruments: diplomatic threats and verbal escalation aimed at dividing Bulgarian society and testing the resilience of the government, the risk of disinformation campaigns and the potential activation of pro-Iranian structures such as Hezbollah for sabotage or terrorist acts of the Burgas 2012 type," he summarizes.
Meanwhile, NATO has issued its position on the information that Iran is considering possible attacks against American military targets in Europe. It states that the Alliance is ready to respond to any threat and will always do whatever is necessary to protect its members: "Our deterrence and defense capacity are strong and effective, as demonstrated this year, when NATO air defenses intercepted ballistic missiles flying towards Turkey from Iran on four occasions," a representative of the defense alliance announced.