The overwhelming majority of Germans - 52% - support aid for Ukraine. But the share of people who consider the supply of weapons to Kiev excessive is growing. The debate has intensified after the AfD's victory in Saxony-Anhalt.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz continues to defend support for Kiev, with the help of which Russian aggression will be repelled. “We support Ukraine and will continue to support it, because it also defends our freedom,“ Merz said during the latest debates in the Bundestag.
With these words, he responded to Alice Weidel, co-chair of the “Alternative for Germany“ (AzG) - a party that is partly right-wing extremist. In the discussion before that, Weidel had called: “Commit yourself finally to starting peace talks, like the US is doing“. But US President Donald Trump has long demonstrated that in these talks he is ready to make too many concessions to Russia to the detriment of Ukraine. That is why critics in Germany warn that such a scenario can only lead to peace under conditions imposed by the Kremlin.
And regarding the high energy prices in Germany, Weidel said: “We need cheap natural gas from Russia. We will work on this issue“. She indirectly attributed the responsibility for the explosion of the “Nord Stream“ gas pipeline to the Ukrainian leadership in September 2022 and added: “You continue to reward the alleged organizers of the terrorist act with billions at Germany's expense“. There are suggestions that the sabotage was the work of a Ukrainian sabotage group.
The extent of the AfD's sympathy for Russia, regardless of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, was clearly demonstrated by AfD MP Jürgen Kögel: he spoke of “the respected President Vladimir Putin”, from whom no military threat to NATO arose.
A clear division between East and West Germany
The AfD's position on the war in Ukraine is not new. After the party's victory in the elections in the eastern federal state of Saxony-Anhalt on September 6, this rhetoric became even more insistent. If the votes for the “Alternative for Germany”, “The Left Party“ and “Sarah Wagenknecht Union“ (SWU) are added together, around 60 percent of voters in Saxony-Anhalt supported parties that are skeptical of or opposed to supporting Ukraine.
According to sociologists, one of the key factors in the election result was citizens' concerns about preserving peace in Europe. Respondents ranked this topic as second in importance after “social security“ and significantly more important than the topics “immigration” and “environment and climate”. The serious differences between the eastern and western states on the issue of military support for Ukraine are also confirmed by the latest ARD survey, conducted shortly before the elections: 39 percent of people in the West consider the arms supply to Kiev excessive, while 54 percent in the East share the same opinion.
“The German government's policy towards Ukraine does not enjoy the support of the majority of people in the eastern part of the country“, political scientist Johannes Warwick from the University of Halle, Saxony-Anhalt, told DW. “However, I would not call this a pro-Russian position. "It is more about the desire to rely more on diplomacy, rather than fueling a conflict that Ukraine cannot win with ever more arms deliveries," he added.
The Germans and the Russian threat
On September 1, the German government accused Russia of the attempted attack with an armed drone at Leipzig airport. A significant part of military aid to Ukraine passes through it. Russian President Vladimir Putin described these accusations as a "serious mistake," and Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov even described them as "the beginning of a real war." This indicates a new stage in the escalation of already tense relations.
According to the latest ARD survey, 56 percent of Germans see Russia as a strong or very strong threat. But here too there is a difference: people from the eastern provinces and AfD supporters perceive Russia as a threat significantly less often, which apparently also affected the election results in Saxony-Anhalt.
Political analyst Sven Leunich of the University of Jena, Thuringia, explains the reaction of East Germans as follows: “It is not so much a matter of principled rejection of support for Ukraine as a reaction based on fear. People want to stay away from the conflict so as not to be drawn deeper into it. And this, of course, strengthens the positions of parties such as the “Alternative for Germany” and “The Left“, which incite such sentiments“.
Support for Ukraine is also losing supporters for another reason. The AfD and the CCW are actively convincing their fellow citizens that the money allocated to Ukraine could be directed to social needs in Germany itself. AfD MP Gottfried Curio, for example, accused the federal government of cutting social benefits and increasing taxes “in order to continue giving away billions abroad“ and to finance “foreign wars“, including in Ukraine.
The willingness of Germans to support Ukraine is slowly declining
Nevertheless, Chancellor Merz is convinced that his policy continues to enjoy support both in the country's political circles and among society. Regarding the AfD's demands to resume energy supplies from Russia and to end support for Ukraine, he said: “The majority of the deputies in the German Bundestag will not go down the path that you are proposing here. Nor do the majority of German citizens support it. We will continue to defend our freedom in the future“.
However, surveys in recent years show that support for Ukraine among the population is gradually decreasing. According to Sven Leunich, the federal government is not yet under pressure to reconsider its policy towards Ukraine, as the current course still enjoys support: “The threat from Russia is indeed perceived by society. But if in the long term the support of the population weakens, sooner or later the government will have to react to this“.
Ukraine - a second Afghanistan?
His colleague Johannes Warwick is already advising a change of course, although not so much because of public sentiment in Germany: “Yes, we should side with Ukraine. But being on the side of Ukraine does not mean supporting a hopeless war of attrition without a viable political strategy. This leads to a further depletion of Ukrainian resources, even if such a policy is presented as friendly to Ukraine“.
Critics draw parallels with the intervention of Western countries in Afghanistan, which after 20 years, billions in aid and about 3,500 dead soldiers from the Western coalition ended with the return of the Taliban to power. However, Sven Leunich does not agree with such a comparison: “I think that these cases cannot be considered identical. In Afghanistan, there was a direct military intervention by Western countries using land and air forces. In the case of Ukraine, it is about military aid and arms supplies. But there is a fear in society that the war will last a very long time and here a certain parallel can indeed be drawn with Afghanistan. And Ukraine may still find itself forced to capitulate“.
So far, however, there is nothing to indicate a change in the course of the German government. Foreign Minister Johan Vaddefull said during NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte's visit to Berlin: “Germany does not intend to deviate from the chosen course“.